In the post-war strategic landscape of the Middle East, silence constitutes the most deceptive variable. While the balance of power appears to have shifted, security circles in Tel Aviv grapple with a reality far more complex than headlines suggest. Israeli strategists seemingly agree on one unwritten consensus: the “Iran issue” has not ended; it has simply transformed. Yet, in a twist of irony that defines modern asymmetric warfare, an internal phenomenon in Iran – namely the persistence of scattered, low-intensity protests – has unexpectedly become a deterrent against aggressive foreign actions.

Western capitals predominantly view the regime as teetering on the brink. However, a closer reading of recent assessments by the Israeli intelligence community suggests a more cynical reality: the state of “neither complete stability nor immediate collapse” inside Iran effectively places Tehran in a security “gray zone.” By imposing a computational hesitation on Israel, this managed anarchy gifts the Islamic Republic the most vital strategic resource: time.

The dilemma of the “status quo ante”

To understand why internal unrest works in favour of Tehran’s “politics of time,” one must first reread the logic of the threat from Tel Aviv’s perspective. Strategic memos published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) regarding the 2025 outlook explicitly define Israel’s red line as preventing Iran from returning to the status quo ante. INSS analysts emphasise that the current diplomatic deadlock represents the most dangerous scenario for Israel, as Iran could use the shadow of non-agreement and reduced oversight to rebuild its damaged infrastructure.

Classical military logic dictates that the response to such a looming threat should be a preemptive strike or, at the very least, maximum military pressure to prevent the adversary from restoring deterrence. But the internal Iranian variable disrupts these calculations. INSS analytical documents regarding regime........

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