In a series of successful wars and attacks on Palestinians, Iran and five Arab states, Israel, acting with full and essential backing from the US, has established US-Israeli hegemony over the Middle East. The process culminated in 2025 with Israel launching a 12-day war on Iran in June and the US imposing a ceasefire in Gaza in October, a temporary settlement that left surviving Palestinians penned into a tiny ruined enclave.

Israel is today striking at will anywhere from Tehran to Tunisia and from Damascus to Yemen, while in December the US launched heavy air attacks on Syria and Somalia. Israel has long possessed technical military superiority over rival powers in the region, but what makes the Gaza war different from past conflicts is that for the first time, Israel has had near unconditional US military and diplomatic support.

Israel’s raw power is greater than ever in the Middle East, but it is shaky because it relies almost solely on military force and a continuing close alliance with the US. Nothing could be more contrary to the truth than President Donald Trump’s boast at the time of the Gaza ceasefire on 10 October that he had brought peace to the region for the first time in 3,000 years.

It is untrue in the short term, because 411 Palestinians have been killed and 1,112 wounded by Israel in Gaza since the ceasefire, bringing the total to 70,700 dead and 171,000 wounded since October 2023, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

In the longer term, the Middle East has seen the most radical rupture in its political landscape since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 and the emergence of independent Arab states post-1945 as European powers reluctantly ceded imperial control.

The Hamas raid on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200........

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