It’s 7am, Friday 5 July, and the recriminations have begun. The Tories have suffered their worst defeat in history – the knives are out. Losing Tory candidates are taking to the airwaves to blame Rishi Sunak, CCHQ, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and more.

It says something about the state of play in the election that with just under a fortnight to go onto polling day, it is this scenario being talked about in the party, rather than whether the gap between the Tories and Labour will narrow.

“It’s very tough at the moment,” says a minister bracing for defeat on election night. Former government aides have been struck by the messages they have received from Tory candidates asking them to come and help campaign.

“A lot of ministers in really safe seats are now asking for friends to give up time to campaign. It suggests majorities of over 20,000 could even go,” explains a former special adviser. “Every time we think we can catch a break, new shit hits the fan,” says a campaign figure of the current mood.

Depending which pollster’s MRP you pick, Rishi Sunak could even lose his Yorkshire seat. That is viewed by the Tory campaign as unlikely – but were it to come to pass it would in a way be one of the less impactful outcomes. No one in the party believes Sunak will lead the party for much longer. The question instead being asked by ministers is who will be left to fight it out to be his successor.

This is what Tories scour the MRP polls for. Among those who could find........

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