As the parties launch their campaigns for the Holyrood election – and Reform dismisses accusations of homophobia – Herald writer Brian Taylor examines the true nature of the contest.

A dash of history, before we plunge into contemporary politics. Anybody familiar with David Steel’s exhortation to his Liberal supporters in 1981? Well, of course you are. You are clued-up Herald readers. The Liberal leader, his voice rising, directed his party members to “go back to your constituencies and prepare for government.”

In the event, the mould of British politics remained stubbornly unbroken, despite the efforts of Steel and his SDP chums. But, in the moment, it was electrifying. As the Holyrood campaign begins, our MSPs have now cleared their think-pod offices. Those who hope to return are preparing for government, opposition or involuntary oblivion.

Yet somehow the discourse feels a little weary and stale. Which reflects public disengagement in this, the age of anxiety. And yet. We are indeed preparing for government, collectively. Preparing for the new team who will help shape our future direction: on the economy, the cost of living, the NHS, education, justice. And, perhaps, on the Union.

But remember, we are choosing all the members of Scotland’s new Parliament, not just those in office. The members whose votes will decide the legislation and the budget which shape every single one of those crucially important issues. We pick a Parliament – from which emerges governance. And that Parliament will itself determine the scope of that governance, will set the boundaries for our next First Minister.

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It would be helpful if we, collectively, appreciated the scale and salience of that electoral decision. If we arose from understandable torpor. Yes, our society is beset by worries: security, the cost of living. But the vote on May 7 can play a part in our societal response.

At a Holyrood political event this week, I took the opportunity to make mischief. I posed two questions to every non-partisan guest: who will be the next First Minister, and which party will come second? The answer to the first question was universal. John Swinney. The answer to the second varied. A little more than half said Reform UK. The remainder reckoned Labour. Which explains why Reform UK dominated discourse this week. Aside from Malcolm Offord’s apology for his crude, cruel and nauseating “joke” eight years ago.

Launching the SNP campaign, John Swinney said an SNP majority would unlock independence and lock Nigel Farage of Reform out of power. The Tories accused Reform of splitting the Unionist vote, to the advantage of the SNP. Labour’s Anas Sarwar rebutted an SNP challenge by insisting he would make no deals whatsoever with Reform. Indeed, Mr Sarwar sought to align Farage with Swinney as comparably divisive politicians. A charge Mr Swinney robustly dismissed.

This may seem like early flak. Like forced rhetoric. And no doubt the campaign will move and shift over the next six weeks. But remember it is not just about who occupies Bute House. Second place matters. Parliamentary arithmetic matters.

The SNP opened by suggesting that energy bills could come to define the campaign. Not sure I entirely buy that – although I understand the thinking. It allows the SNP to remind the voters of the perilous state of the UK economy. Driven largely by international events, of course – but still leaving a Labour Chancellor to offer limp reassurance. Rather than heading down to the target rate of two per cent, inflation may now rise, affecting interest rates and business confidence.

The OECD has warned that the UK faces potentially the biggest hit to growth among developed countries from the Iran war. Again, not directly the Chancellor’s fault. Not the fault of the PM. But a Downing Street responsibility, in domestic politics. Which further weakens the standing of UK Labour – and generates a damaging echo for Anas Sarwar in Scotland. Which assists the SNP. Their offer replicates their approach over generations – which is to say that, without any caveats, they put Scotland’s interests first.

Is the SNP Scottish Government hugely popular? No, it is not. Folk see flaws and failures – which, entirely reasonably, opponents are keen to amplify. So John Swinney’s offer will be one of potential progress. Improving stats in the NHS, efforts like the rail fare freeze to cut the cost of living – and, as the third part of the trilogy, the prospect of independence through another referendum. Which Mr Swinney bills as the Hope element.

Entirely understandably, the Conservatives seize upon that third part. Yes, they condemn the SNP record in office. Russell Findlay relied upon bombast as he accused his rivals of “dishonesty, incompetence and sleaze.” Mr Swinney smiled ironically, arguing that the ferocity of the attack reflected desperation. But the key Tory strategy is to talk up the “nightmare scenario” of indyref2. An attempt, once more, to corral Union supporters into the Tory camp.

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The Tories also criticised Mr Swinney personally as a “jaded, career politician”. This is a core element of the Labour campaign. They argue that Scotland needs change – and that John Swinney has run out of ideas. Mr Sarwar seeks to match the SNP’s Caledonian card, by stating that his first loyalty is to “my country, Scotland.” Snag is that, in doing so, he urged the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, to quit. He said he was reflecting Scottish wishes. But that enables John Swinney to say that Mr Sarwar eagerly endorsed Starmer just two years ago, calling the Scottish leader’s judgement into question.

The Greens hope to thrive with distinctive policies such as higher taxes for the wealthy and free bus travel for all. Their focus is list votes. Mr Swinney counters that by saying that only an SNP majority advances the cause of independence.

The Liberal Democrats say they can block that majority with a pitch based on “fairness”. Which leaves Reform. They have had a decidedly difficult spell. The Offord row and five candidates quitting. Their tax and spend plans were dismissed as “unserious at best” by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

At all points, the Reform rebuttal is to say that they are different, that they are being targeted by the Establishment. Some may find that convincing. Others will find their determination to block Reform enhanced.

This is a big deal. A big election. Especially in anxious times, it matters.

Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC.

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