‘Everyone knows why we lost,’ JD Vance points to the Iran war — which has already cost at least $38 billion and 19 American lives

While votes were still being counted in the U.S. midterm elections, administration figures in Washington were already inviting speculation over how the results might be connected to the conflict with Iran.

On the morning after the election, Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the major reason for the dramatic loss for Republicans was the American public’s opposition to the war. “Everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” he wrote, in reference to the ongoing conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026.

While it is rare for a vice president to make such a critical proclamation about their own administration’s policy, President Donald Trump later stated that he did not disagree with Vance’s appraisal of the role that frustration with the Iran war played in voters’ minds.

But whether this changes Trump’s view on next steps in the ongoing conflict remains unclear. Reporting over the past few weeks has indicated that the U.S. military has been actively preparing options and increasing capabilities in the Persian Gulf region in the event the president directs a resumption of hostilities.

As an expert on Middle East affairs and a former senior official at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, I’m aware that months of conflict have failed to bring Iran to its knees, force regime change or militarily defeat a perceived threat to U.S. assets and allies. Escalating now is unlikely to change those realities – and it carries the additional risk of further damaging Republicans in the eyes of Americans voters as they turn toward the 2028 presidential race.

Even if Trump were to ratchet up the conflict, moreover, it’s unclear how much wiggle room he’ll have come January facing a........

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