By Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Hormuz as the prize. Aluwaisheg says the U.S.–Iran war that began 28 Feb is no longer a stalemate: Washington never reopened Hormuz, so Tehran kept its main lever. Japan, France, and Germany sat out; China stayed cautious despite oil; Russia is unhurt by the closure.

Two more chokepoints. Iraq-based militias hit Saudi’s East-West line (~4% of world oil). Houthis’ Yemen gains threaten Bab al-Mandab (~10% of 2025 trade; Red Sea oil shipments had jumped 60% as a Hormuz bypass). Traffic there was already down ~50% since 2023.

A GCC shopping list. UNSCR 2817 condemned Iran’s attacks (China and Russia abstained; they vetoed a later navigation text). Also named: the 2000 GCC mutual-defense treaty; a 14-nation Maritime Defense Alliance (30 July; 4th planning meeting in Jeddah on 18 Sept); the 7 Aug Makkah pact (Saudi Arabia–Pakistan–Türkiye); a wider Combined Maritime Forces brief; more GCC–U.S. work on drones and mines. Author: keep Washington close, hedge if U.S. politics sours; views are personal, not official GCC.

The Iran war has reached a dangerous tipping point. Events of the last week have demonstrated what looks like Tehran’s end game. After almost seven months since it started on Feb. 28, the US-Iran war has morphed into a stalemate for a while because Iranian hardliners believed that time was on their side: The US blockade had taken a firm grip, sanctions tightened, Tehran’s isolation deepened, and its military capacity was devastated. However, the US was not able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has left Iran with its most valuable strategic prize and point of leverage. Iran was therefore unwilling to compromise and make a deal.

Iran also detected cracks in its adversaries’ camp: key trading........

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