In 1992, Illinois became the first state to elect a Black woman to the U.S. Senate after Carol Moseley Braun upset incumbent Democratic senator Alan Dixon in the primary and went on to easily win the general election. This year, two Black women — Illinois lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton and U.S. representative Robin Kelly — are viable contenders for the Senate seat opened up by the retirement of five-term Democrat Dick Durbin. But a third candidate, U.S. representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, was the early front-runner in the contest. Krishnamoorthi, who is Indian American, could still win, leaving Black Democrats in the state grumbling at each other for dividing forces.

Krishnamoorthi, who has represented an urban-suburban Chicago district since 2016, built a large early fundraising advantage and then benefited from heavy spending by a crypto-industry super-PAC that has criticized his opponents. More recently, Stratton has caught up in both campaign spending and in the polls in part thanks to financial backing from a super-PAC created by her most important backer, two-term governor J.B. Pritzker (she’s also supported by another Illinois senator, Tammy Duckworth). Kelly, a veteran Chicago politician who enjoys support from her colleagues in the Congressional Black Caucus, has trailed far behind in fundraising and has lost altitude in the polls.

Figuring out whether Krishnamoorthi or Stratton is actually leading the race has been complicated by a shortage of independent polls, as The Hill noted last week:

An early March poll commissioned by a pro-Krishnamoorthi group put him up 11 points over Stratton, with 15 percent of respondents undecided, as shared by Politico. But other results signal a potential surge for Stratton: A survey commissioned by the DLGA the same week........

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