Trump’s deal will show how pointless his war was

June 15, 2026 — 11:59am

You have reached your maximum number of saved items.

Remove items from your saved list to add more.

The oil can start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again after the US and Iran agreed what’s appears to be a 60-day ceasefire agreement. How freely it will flow, however, is an open question.

From what has been disclosed, the strait, effectively closed since the US attacked Iran on February 28, will gradually re-open, without tolls, while Iran begins clearing mines it has laid in the passage. In return, the US will lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and lift the sanctions it has imposed on sales of Iranian oil.

The toll-free status of the waterway through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil used to flow will remain for at least the 60 day-period during which the countries will try to negotiate the future of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, with the US holding out the carrot of further sanctions relief and the unfreezing of the tens of billions of dollars of Iranian assets held offshore.

Assuming the US and Iran can agree a permanent deal – which is a big “if,” given that Iran has said that it wants $US24 billion ($33.9 billion) of its frozen assets released immediately, maintains it has the right to impose charges for ensuring “safe and secure passage” through the strait and insists that it won’t relinquish the right to enrich uranium for civil use.

It could take three months for the mines to be completely removed, the oil tankers trapped in the strait to be cleared and considerably longer for the damage to the region’s oil infrastructure to be repaired.

Happy Birthday, Mr President. You’ve had a long, but low life

Geoffrey RobertsonHuman rights barrister and author

Human rights barrister and author

Even if there is a permanent deal, it is doubtful that the post-war environment around the strait will ever return to its pre-war normalcy.

The Iranians have now shown that they can close the strait at will, so there can be no return to the pre-war presumption that a strait that had........

© Brisbane Times