Over the past two decades, Turkiye has significantly shifted its foreign policy, transitioning from a reactive stance to one characterized by proactive and interventionist strategies. This shift has been driven by the recognition of evolving geopolitical landscapes and the structural challenges presented by regional conflicts. Freed from many domestic constraints, the Turkish policymaking apparatus has enjoyed ample maneuverability, allowing for a bold and ambitious foreign policy. However, this approach has sometimes strained relations with both global and regional actors.

Ibrahim Kalin, who was chief foreign policy adviser to then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and now serves as intelligence chief, introduced the term “precious loneliness” to describe Turkiye’s controversial Middle East policy during a turbulent period. At the time, Ankara was embroiled in a diplomatic row with Cairo, adding to its already strained relations with Syria and Israel, and creating friction with some Gulf states. Despite multiple attempts, efforts to restore ties with Egypt, Israel, and the Gulf states bore little fruit for nearly a decade. However, recent years have ushered in a new era in Turkiye’s foreign relations, driven by new structural challenges and a recalibrated approach that leverages political, economic, and social tools.

Several internal and external factors have driven this significant shift in Turkiye’s foreign policy. Domestically, key political developments, including the May 2023 elections and the upcoming March 2024 elections, alongside economic challenges and shifts in public opinion, have played crucial roles. Externally, the dynamics of global power have shifted, particularly in the post-American era in the Middle East, alongside regional conflicts such as the Israeli war in Gaza. Additionally, diplomatic pressures, epitomized by the broader reconciliation climate heralded by the AlUla declaration of 2021, have influenced Ankara’s foreign policy direction.

These multifaceted factors have collectively led Ankara to adopt a foreign policy characterized by greater pragmatism and restraint. Turkiye’s renewed momentum in its........

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