Rakhine State, historically a flashpoint for ethnic and communal tensions, is once again on the brink of severe conflict. The rapid and expansive territorial gains by the Arakan Army (AA) following “Operation 1027” have dramatically altered the region’s power dynamics, bringing both new opportunities and significant risks. The AA now controls or is on the verge of controlling practically every Rohingya communal area. This development has been met with mixed reactions: Rakhine Buddhists generally applaud the group’s success, while the Rohingya minority faces new uncertainties and potential dangers.

As of May, the AA has seized control of 10 towns in Rakhine, including strategically important areas such as Buthidaung, Rathedaung, and Mrauk-U, among others. The AA’s control extends to more than 187 junta outposts and bases, including 16 major command centers. The Myanmar military, also known as the Tatmadaw, has suffered significant losses, with at least seven senior commanders assassinated and six others kidnapped. The AA’s campaign aims to establish control over all of Rakhine, intensifying the conflict as it strives for dominance.

In response, the State Administration Council (SAC) leadership appears to have adopted a strategy of increasing harm to the state’s civilian population to stave off further losses to the AA.........

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