Opinion

Biden has delivered an impressive recovery, but many voters remember lower prices under Trump.

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Advantage: Biden

3. Economic growth

The data doesn’t support Trump’s claim that he had the “greatest economy in the history of the world” but he did preside over several years of 2.5 to 3 percent annual growth — well above the norm of about 2 percent. Of course, the pandemic recession hit during Trump’s final year in office, pummeling his record. Growth under Biden has been strong — surging to nearly 6 percent in 2021, 1.9 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023. Indeed, the U.S. economy has been the envy of the world for its robust post-pandemic surge, as Biden likes to remind people.

Advantage: Biden, slightly

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4. Home buying

The American Dream is to own a home. Under Trump, the share of households that do climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64 percent when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained around 66 percent. The influencing factor here has been mortgage rates (which presidents don’t control). Under Trump and early in Biden’s presidency, mortgage rates were low, and many Americans took advantage of them to buy homes. In 2022 and 2023, though, mortgage rates jumped as the Federal Reserve battled inflation by raising interest rates. At the same time, in many parts of the country, home prices were also rising rapidly. As a result, 2023 became the most unaffordable year to buy a home since the early 1980s. Younger Americans are especially concerned that they will never be able to afford one.

Advantage: Trump

5. Jobs by county

The fruits of economic growth are not distributed equally around the country. To assess the geographic winners and losers during each presidency, we compared county unemployment for 2019 (a strong Trump year) with 2023 (a strong Biden year). The results are interesting: More counties overall did better under Biden, but counties in certain swing states, especially Michigan and Nevada, did better under Trump.

Ironically, liberal California had a stronger labor market under Trump, while a host of Republican Southern states are doing better under Biden. It’s not entirely clear why this is, but states’ idiosyncrasies probably play a role. In California, the tech sector has atrophied recently, and, in Texas, more workers joining the labor force have pushed up the unemployment rate.

Both Trump and Biden favor place-based industrial policies — Republican tariffs, for instance, and Democratic subsidies for semiconductors and green energy. And some counties and states benefit more from these policies than others.

Advantage: Biden

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6. African American workers

Both Trump and Biden presided over tight labor markets, which gave all workers more bargaining power. This helped narrow long-standing gender and racial gaps in the workforce. Female and Black workers saw strong employment gains under Trump, until the pandemic set working women back. Biden has tried to create employment opportunities for groups normally left behind. In April of last year, the Black unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 4.8 percent. And for the first time ever, in March of last year, the share of Black Americans who are employed exceeded the share of White Americans who are employed. Women have bounced back from the pandemic faster than men, partly because new work-from-home arrangements permit more flexible schedules.

Advantage: Biden, slightly

7. U.S. manufacturing

Biden doesn’t get enough credit for boosting U.S. manufacturing. The huge amounts of federal money he has devoted to it have made a difference. Factory construction in the United States has jumped. Semiconductor companies are spending billions building factories in Arizona, Ohio, Upstate New York and Texas. Trump talked up manufacturing, but he had no noticeable effect on factory building. Indeed, the Foxconn factory he promised for Wisconsin never materialized.

Advantage: Biden

8. Job creation by industry

Job growth was widespread under Trump, and it has been under Biden, as well. When the data is compared side-by-side, it shows that many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden (762,000 more). Manufacturing jobs are now at their highest level since the Great Recession. White-collar, health-care and government jobs have also surged in recent years. Construction was strong under both presidencies.

Advantage: Biden

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9. Home prices

Home values have been rising rapidly in recent years. When Trump took office, the median home sale price was about $320,000. By the end of his term, it had risen to about $350,000. At the start of 2024, it was about $420,000. This has been great news for the two-thirds of Americans who already own their homes. But it’s made younger Americans fear that they might never be able to afford to buy a home. Most of this increase has been caused by a supply shortage in the United States.

Advantage: Biden

10. American entrepreneurship

Since the pandemic hit in 2020, new business creation in the United States has surged to its........

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