Over the past two days, I spoke with two Israeli friends of mine who have been living in Budapest for decades. Both are successful businessmen, but each, in his own way, suffered at the hands of the autocratic regime led by Hungary’s outgoing prime minister Viktor Orban.

Both also spend time in Israel, moving between the two countries. They possess the necessary perspective to compare the situations in Israel and Hungary.

Neither was willing to be identified by name. Over the years, I have heard their stories about how Orban’s corrupt administration seized hotels, buildings and valuable businesses it coveted.

The fear remains palpable even days after the election. No one is willing to tangle with the outgoing prime minister, who, despite leaving office, still sees his associates controlling the centers of power he built and nurtured over 16 years.

“I’m torn,” my friend H. tells me. “On the one hand, I’m happy for Hungary. Orban plundered the country’s assets from its citizens. He also hurt my businesses quite badly. Now, people here will have a different feeling, and the economy may also improve after the European Union unfreezes the tens of billions it withheld from Hungary because of Orban.”

“On the other hand, I’m also Israeli, and I appreciated seeing Orban stand as a fortified wall, protecting Israel within the European Union,” H. says. “He saved us there from some very difficult decisions.”

On Sunday night, H. and his friends took to the streets after the official results began coming in. “It was euphoria – a festival that lasted all night,” says H. “Near the parliament building, the atmosphere was celebratory; the streets were packed, and tens of thousands crossed the Danube to the other side as well. For the first time, I truly felt what a revolution is like – like a Frenchman on Bastille Night.”

Everyone agrees that Hungary’s youth drove this revolution, and here the difference between Budapest and Israel becomes evident. In Hungary, voter turnout among those under 30, many of them students, doubled. The relentless campaign they waged against Orban drew attention across Europe.

“When I arrived in Hungary 27 years ago, everything here was dim,” H. recalls. “The Soviet influence was still palpable. People, including the young, walked with their heads down. No one had fully broken free of communism yet.”

“The latest generation has changed dramatically. I see it in my own children, too,” he continues. “Back then, they didn’t know or care about anything. Today, they know everything. They travel the world, see other countries, and do extraordinary things. Almost all of them are involved and engaged. Critics tried to label the youngsters as anarchists or ‘alternatives,’ but they were amazing.”

The comparison with Israel, however, is not a direct one. In the next Israeli election, nearly 600,000 new young voters will join the electorate. The common assumption is that most of them lean to the right and support the parties forming the current coalition, from Likud to Otzma Yehudit.

It is difficult to find precise polling that examines the voting tendencies of these new voters. Young people tend not to participate in such surveys, but the general assessment is that the majority do not support the center-left bloc – unlike their counterparts in Hungary, who led the pro-change movement.

Viktor Orban, now 62, was re-elected as prime minister in 2010. He had previously served a single term between 1998 and 2002. From 2010, Orban won four consecutive elections, riding a wave of anti-migrant sentiment and a deteriorating economic situation, much like other right-wing parties in Europe.

In the 2014 election, heading into his third term, Orban won a two-thirds majority in parliament – a margin that mirrors his defeat to Peter Magyar on Sunday. During that time, he deepened the “legislative reforms” that are strikingly reminiscent of Israel’s current political reality.

At the time, Orban declared he was pivoting away from liberal democracy to establish an “illiberal state,” modeled after his ideals in Russia, China and Turkey.

Orban and his partners seized control of broad swaths of the media, the state prosecution system, and, most importantly, the courts. Orban also overhauled the electoral system, creating districts in the periphery to secure a guaranteed majority even if he lost in the capital, Budapest.

This anti-democratic policy, combined with Orban’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin during the war in Ukraine, further crippled Hungary’s shaky economy and cost the country billions in lost European Union aid.

In April 2022, Orban managed to win yet again. Back then, the opposition was led by Peter Marki-Zay, who hailed from the liberal wing. This time, the opposition was headed by a conservative candidate, Peter Magyar – a former senior Fidesz official and close associate of the now-defeated prime minister.

Magyar managed to forge an impressive leadership and secure victory. In an Israeli context, this would be akin to the anti-Netanyahu camp being led by a right-wing figure like Naftali Bennett – who served as defense and education minister under Netanyahu and was previously his chief of staff – rather than center-left figures like Yair Lapid. (Together Bennett and Lapid managed to oust Netanyahu for some 18 months in 2021-22, before the Likud leader persuaded members of Bennett’s party to defect, and brought down their government.)

“Magyar is not all that different from Orban in his views,” says L., another Israeli businessman who has lived in Hungary for years. “But he came with a winning card: the fight against corruption and nepotism.”

“What Orban implemented here was state-sponsored racketeering,” L. explains. “Beyond the media and legal systems, they took over construction firms, transport companies and various services. Just look at how many hotels on the Danube waterfront are now owned by Orban and his family members.”

“He built a system that was impossible to resist,” he continues. “If you owned an asset and refused to sell it to them willingly, they would set the police, tax authorities and municipal fines on you, followed by baseless lawsuits. Even owners of major companies were forced to surrender to them.”

How, then, did Orban lose after seizing every corner of the country? “Precisely because of that,” says L. “He pushed it too far and felt invincible. Orban thought he was protected by his media, television and centers of power everywhere, but that isn’t enough when people have nothing to eat.”

“The economic situation was his undoing,” L. says. “Since the war in Ukraine began, prices have tripled or quadrupled. Inflation ran wild, hitting 25% earlier this decade. People fell into poverty one after another.”

“I also live in Israel,” L. continues. “In Israel, we don’t have an economic situation so dire that it would drive the entire public into the streets in a similar way. Here, in Hungary, people literally cannot pay their bills. The catastrophe in the healthcare system is indescribable. The situation in rural villages is appalling; they are stuck in the 1960s and 1970s, hungry and freezing. Even we in Budapest felt it.”

“The anti-Fidesz sentiment built up day by day until the election. Everyone had had enough. They wanted fair compensation for their work and a decent, clean environment, free from this insane cost of living,” L. concluded.

Last April, I accompanied Netanyahu on his official visit to Hungary. He was received with royal honors and described Orban as “the best ally we have in Europe.” Netanyahu’s son, Yair, who visited Budapest on the eve of the election, remarked that “Hungary is my second home.”

Hungarian Jews and the Israelis who emigrated there appreciated Orban for one specific reason: the special treatment he afforded them, particularly regarding Chabad institutions (Orban transferred ownership of all Jewish Holocaust assets to Chabad).

Orban also banned pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel demonstrations. Unlike the situation in almost every other European country, Jews in Hungary enjoyed a sense of security and calm.

The Hungarian residents I spoke with were willing to overlook Orban’s dictatorship and corruption to some extent in exchange for his hardline immigration policy and closed borders. They did not want to see Hungary flooded with refugees from Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

During the campaign, Magyar successfully persuaded voters that he would find a balance between the population’s desires and European Union policy. According to Ronen Dorfen, a veteran Israeli journalist living in Hungary, the European Union – which wants Magyar to succeed – will likely take this into account and grant him a certain amount of grace.

“Magyar opposes mass immigration,” says H. “In that, he is no different from Orban; he won’t throw the gates wide open. But we mustn’t forget that 20 billion euros are sitting with the EU, and he needs to release that money to save the economy.”

“Migrants will inevitably come here – there is no choice – but even today, Wolt (food delivery service; SY) couriers in Budapest are primarily from Pakistan or Bangladesh,” H. says. “Our main concern right now is personal security; we hope we won’t see here the same antisemitic and anti-Israeli phenomena that have plagued Western Europe.”

Still, it takes a candidate with a specific character and set of qualities to oust a dictator entrenched in power for over 16 years. My Israeli contacts are full of admiration.

They praise Magyar’s simple, human messaging, his diligence and his work ethic. They also point to his effective use of social media to counter Orban’s scare tactics, specifically targeting the young voters who ultimately decided the election.

“Magyar is brave and determined; he didn’t blink for a moment against Orban and his propaganda machine,” H. concludes. “Magyar didn’t write off any segment of the population. He crisscrossed Hungary, reaching the most remote villages that naturally vote for the government. In Budapest, he already had massive support from students and the youth, and from there, he swept everyone along.”

Is there a similar role model like the 45-year-old Magyar here in Israel? At this moment, no unifying, legitimate opposition leader has emerged with the ability to shake the standing of our long-serving prime minister. With six months at most to go before the election, Israel’s anti-Netanyahu bloc has steeper challenges than Magyar, but it still has much to learn from the Hungarian example.

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