A decade after the Paris Climate Agreement (2015), in which the world’s countries committed to concrete climate policy objectives, aimed to mobilizing halt or even reverse the trend of global warming, a new study by the Tahadhari Center (Brussels) headed by me and Mark Causon, poses the question: Whether countries in the Mediterranean region that have acted following their agenda and their commitments agreed in the Paris convention are in a better climate situation in 2026?

This article presents the preliminary findings as of early 2026. Generally, Mediterranean countries that have potently implemented their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the above Paris Agreement are in a relatively better climate policy position, but all face severe, worsening climate impacts, with the region warming 20% faster than the global average.

While Northern countries that were examined (France, Italy, Greece) generally show more advanced policy frameworks and higher renewable energy shares, Southern countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Israel) are rapidly enhancing their policy frameworks, with some, like Jordan, pioneering climate-resilient development models. However, as of 2026, the entire region is not fully in line with the 1.5°C goal.

It is well known that the climate devil is in the details; therefore, when scrutinizing the climate performance in Southern/Eastern Mediterranean Countries (Jordan, Israel, Morocco, Tunisia) we can see that Jordan ranked as highly proactive. Jordan has developed a comprehensive 2022–2050 climate change policy, integrating climate action into all sectoral strategies. It focuses on increasing domestic renewable energy to enhance security of supply and has created a specific climate directorate at the Ministry of Environment.  Morocco and Tunisia are among those with high ambitions but face challenges in implementation, often requiring external support. Morocco is recognized for its significant progress in renewable energy, though it still needs to tackle GHG emissions in other sectors.

Israel, although did not achieve the target of 20% renewable energy by 2025, is still adhering to the target of 30% by 2030, with a target of net-zero carbon emissions in the energy sector by 2050, bolstered by regional cooperation. It should be noted that compared to the world, despite the growth, Israel still lags behind OECD countries, where the rate of renewable energy is significantly higher.

As for the Northern Mediterranean Countries that were examined, France & Italy are under the EU Green Deal, both countries are tightening climate action, targeting carbon neutrality by 2050. They are, however, facing challenges in meeting 2030 emission reduction targets, with 2025/2026 reports urging accelerated action and a faster phase-out of fossil fuels.

Greece: By late 2025, Greece is noted as a “medium performer” in the Climate Change Performance Index, dropping in rankings due to high gas reliance, yet it has shown significant progress in renewables, with plans to totally phase out lignite by 2026.

When we chose to focus the lens on regional trends analysis in 2026 re Climate Vulnerability, it is evident that despite advancements, the region is facing intense climate risks when 2025 broke heat records, and 2026 continues to see severe water stress, droughts, and fire risks, making 2026 a year of focusing on urgent adaptation rather than just mitigation. We are here to follow, and Tahadhari center’ final report will be published by end of the year.

Summarizing the findings so far, targeting the question of whether we are in a ‘Better Situation’ – evidently, countries that have actively implemented their NDC commitments, such as Jordan with its sector-specific climate strategies and Greece or France with renewable expansion, are technically in a better (climate) situation because they are better prepared to manage energy security risks and have better access to climate finance. However, the ‘better situation’ is relative; it means better than if they had done nothing, not that they are insulated from the severe climate change impacts predicted to increase in 2026.

The second part of the article will present the ‘implementation gap’ between state funding of climate strategies and actual performance, and their socio-economic implications. Coming soon.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)