In the 2001 Tony Scott-directed thriller “Spy Game,” an emotionally charged and stressed Tom Bishop (played by Brad Pitt) howls at Nathan Muir (played by Robert Redford) that the spy profession is not a game, to which Muir calmly retorts, “Oh yes it is, it is exactly a game… and this is not what you want to lose.” All states play this game, as intelligence organisations are a major instrument of statecraft. They determine the intentions, capabilities, and plans of target states, non-state actors, or terrorist organisations, and play an important role in reducing uncertainty in decision-making by providing advance warning and information that might not be available through normal diplomatic channels, so that governments can take more informed decisions. Whenever diplomacy and direct military involvement are not considered an option, these organisations engage in covert operations. However, over the years, few states have mastered this game and relied on spies to achieve their objectives as much as India.

On 13 February 2026, Nikhil Gupta, an Indian national, confessed and pleaded guilty in a United States court that he took part in plotting to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in 2023. Pannun, an American citizen who also holds Canadian citizenship, is a Sikh rights activist affiliated with a New York-based group called Sikhs for Justice. Gupta contacted a killer for hire and electronically transferred $15,000 to him. This would-be assassin was, in fact, an undercover agent of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). In June 2003, Gupta was apprehended in the Czech Republic when he was about to fly out from Prague airport. He was extradited to the USA. According to the FBI’s James Barnacle Jr, who heads its New York office, Gupta was receiving instructions from and operating at the behest of an Indian government employee who remains at large. This individual was identified as Vikash Yadav. According to details, Vikash Yadav worked for the Government of India’s Cabinet Secretariat, which oversees the country’s foreign intelligence service. More precisely, he works for the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW). It was Yadav who provided Gupta with personal information about Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, including Pannun’s home address in New York City, phone numbers associated with him, and details of his day-to-day conduct. The plot to murder Pannun was part of a larger plan to eliminate Sikh activists around the globe, especially in Canada and the USA. Earlier, Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar was murdered in Surrey, in British Columbia, Canada.

None other than then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that Ottawa had credible intelligence linking Indian agents to the murder of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver. He received intelligence from the Five Eyes partners regarding the involvement of Indian spies in Nijjar’s murder. As a consequence of Nijjar’s assassination, Ottawa identified six Indian diplomats, including the Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, as persons of interest in the case and asked New Delhi to waive their diplomatic immunity so that Canadian authorities could interview them. New Delhi refused. Ottawa then declared them persona non grata and expelled them. This was not the first time Indian intelligence had plotted to kill Sikh leadership in Canada. In fact, there is a long history of targeting the Sikh community in Canada by Indian intelligence. For those interested in knowing more, Zuhair Kashmiri and Brian McAndrew’s Soft Target would be a useful read.

Canada is not an isolated example of India’s relentless spy game; Sri Lanka has long been a victim as well. During the 1980s, Indian intelligence recruited and trained Sri Lankan Tamils in intelligence gathering and directed them to spy on foreign naval movements in the Trincomalee harbour, as well as security force installations, particularly those located in north-eastern Sri Lanka. R&AW also played a role in strengthening Tamil militant groups, which expanded their area of operation, and by 1986 their numbers rose to more than 20,000 militants. These groups became New Delhi’s trump card in dealing with Colombo, used to push it to change its policy and keep it destabilised. The tables turned for New Delhi after the signing of the Indo-Lanka Accord in July 1987. As a consequence, the LTTE, which had been a major recipient of Indian assistance, declared war against Indian forces deployed in Sri Lanka. The magnitude of this assistance could be gauged from reports about the presence of Indian advisers or trainers with them while they were fighting against Indian forces. The culmination of the LTTE’s volte-face occurred in 1991. Rajiv Gandhi, whom Prabhakaran considered responsible for his failure to achieve Eelam, was assassinated through a suicide bombing in May 1991 in Tamil Nadu.

The details of how Indian intelligence services have tried to operate against their primary target, Pakistan, cannot be squeezed into this limited space, as they require extensive treatment. It is a story to be covered another day. A glaring testament to their efforts against Pakistan is Commander Kulbhushan Sudhir Jadhav, currently in Pakistani custody. For a start, Ashok Raina’s Inside RAW would be useful for those interested in learning more. The legendary American spymaster James Angleton once described the world of espionage as the wilderness of mirrors. In this treacherous and deceptive wilderness, New Delhi is under the delusion that it can dominate the game, ignoring a vital lesson: patterns matter more than promises.

Rizwan ZebThe writer is Karachi based Security analyst.

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