Elusive Peace

March 26, 2026

Newspaper, Opinions, Editorials

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As expected, the United States President Donald Trump’s decision to announce that negotiations are underway with Iran appears to be a move designed primarily to calm markets, with little substance behind it. The immediate aftermath of these statements offers its own evidence: markets briefly stabilised and stocks rebounded on the assumption that a deal was imminent.

Yet this appears to be little more than market management. On the ground, the reality diverges sharply. While the United States has been attempting to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, Tehran seems unwilling to return without tangible and verifiable changes across the Middle East.

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For far too long, the United States and Israel have carried out strikes, agreed to ceasefires, and then resumed hostilities once they have regrouped and prepared for another round. Such unreliable ceasefires serve no one’s interests, and Iran appears to have concluded that continuing the conflict may be the more rational course under present conditions. In this environment, Pakistan and Turkey have sought to keep backchannel diplomacy alive.

This is reflected in the belief among multiple actors, from the US President to Gulf states, that Pakistan could play a role in bringing both sides to the table. It underscores Pakistan’s growing international stature and its capacity for calibrated diplomacy. While Pakistan should continue to pursue this role, the trajectory of any negotiation ultimately depends on the United States and its willingness to make meaningful concessions.

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At present, that willingness appears limited. Acknowledging failure would carry significant strategic costs, potentially undermining its standing in the Middle East. Even as negotiations are publicly referenced, reports of military preparations continue, with deployments and operational readiness signalling that escalation remains on the table.

In this context, while Pakistan and Turkey continue to play a constructive role, Iran appears unwilling to accept an empty ceasefire, and the United States remains reluctant to concede ground openly.

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