William Pesek

As the U.S. election approaches, many in Asia are viewing the outcome in binary terms. A Kamala Harris win on Nov. 5 means policy continuity; a Donald Trump 2.0 White House would upend the global economy with supersized trade wars.

If only it were that simple. In reality, whether former President Trump wins or loses, South Korea and the rest of this region’s economies could find themselves in harm’s way.

With the election too close to call, it is worth gaming things out.

A Trump victory would be less a black swan event for Asia than a grey one. Unlike the former, the latter is a predictable but unlikely outcome. A grey swan, though, can have its own severe impacts.

The 60 percent tariffs on China that Trump telegraphed would be just the beginning. Trump is threatening 200 percent taxes on cars and trucks imported from Mexico. It does not require great imagination to think Trump would pull Korea, Japan and Europe into that same tariff zone.

President Yoon Suk Yeol would have to worry about Trump reviving his odd bromance with Kim Jong-un. Anyone who thinks Trump would not dare invite the North Korean dictator to the White House has not been paying attention.

Yoon’s government also would find itself facing new bilateral trade talks. It would........

© The Korea Times