France’s snap elections have produced the most fragmented parliament since Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic. The two-round majority electoral system was designed to avoid political instability and contain the extremes. The system failed to achieve the first, with a new hung parliament divided into three comparable groups that will keep any government that is formed under constant threat of no-confidence votes. It only partially succeeded on the second; stopping the far-right National Rally (RN) from taking power, but not preventing its exponential growth in parliamentary seats from eight to more than 120 between 2017 and 2024.

The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition that came together a few days before the first round of voting was the gamechanger. Together with the strong second place for Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble, despite the loss of half of its seats, and a historically high turnout (66.6%), its performance was a significant demonstration that the RN does not have the support of the majority of the population. Nevertheless, the far right has become a normalised part of French politics, its ideas and terminology widely echoed even by mainstream cable news channels and papers, and its historic number of seats barely making waves.

Bucking expectations, tactical voting by leftwing and centrist voters in what is known as the front républican, a firewall to prevent the RN from being elected, carried the day. This held, despite Macron’s initial attempt to first vilify and then split the NFP. His own camp split over the issue of calling for tactical voting, marking a new rift within Ensemble, and a notable weakening of his influence over his own parliamentary group.

The most optimistic scenario is now one in which the NFP preserves its unity, despite internal tensions, and manages to get the support of the left wing of Ensemble, and is thereby able to form a government. If Ensemble keeps its unity and finds an agreement with the conservative Les Républicains (LR) and independent centrists, it too could form a government. But both options would be a significant challenge for the French political system, which lacks the culture of political compromise and coalitions. They would be vulnerable to no-confidence votes. France is hence at high risk of political deadlock with a rudderless parliament and a weakened, isolated president.

Macron called elections to force what he termed a “clarification” of the political landscape, deeming the parliament “ungovernable” with only a relative majority and 245 seats. As his former prime minister Édouard Philippe put it on Sunday evening, what “was supposed to be a moment of clarification, has instead led to uncertainty”.

Rym Momtaz is a consultant research fellow for European foreign policy and security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

When Emmanuel Macron was re-elected president in 2022, it was largely thanks to leftwing voters who were prepared to choose him against Marine Le Pen, despite their profound disappointment with his first term in office. Despite lacking a majority in parliament, he nonetheless behaved as if he could bulldoze through his programme. He used and abused presidential prerogatives to the point of neglecting even his own members of parliament.

Sunday’s election result has brought this style of government to an end. Indeed, Macron’s gambit – expand his coalition or to allow the far right to govern and undermine Marine Le Pen’s chances of sweeping to victory in 2027 – has failed miserably.

Macron will have to allow the New Popular Front (NFP) to try to form a government. But this raises........

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