Reports that Iran is preparing reprisal attacks following the deadly bombing of a facility that Israel claims is linked to threats against its interests have provoked fears of conflict widening in the Middle East.

U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed “ironclad” support for Israel, which is widely considered to be responsible for the April 1, 2024, attack, amid fiery rhetoric from Tehran warning of revenge.

But what could an Iranian response look like? And how is Tehran thinking about the associated pros and cons of any such activity? The Conversation U.S. turned to Javed Ali, a national security expert at the University of Michigan and former senior U.S. counterterrorism official, for answers.

The attack in Damascus – which the Israeli government has yet to acknowledge publicly – was a dramatic turn in the long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran.

For decades now, both Iran and Israel have engaged in operations against each other in both the physical and virtual worlds.

These attacks have involved cyberoperations, support to proxy forces, airstrikes and targeted killings that have taken a toll on both sides.

The Damascus attack was particularly dramatic, however, because it killed two generals and five other officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force. The Quds Force is Iran’s unconventional warfare wing that has supported Tehran’s proxies and regional partners with money, weapons and equipment for decades. Moreover, it took place on a diplomatic enclave, which Israel had not previously conducted operations against, even in Damascus.

In the history of the Quds Force, it had never lost that many officers in one operation by its adversaries. Even the significant........

© The Conversation