In just about any discussion of a poll about the very close presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, you’ll hear the phrase “within the poll’s margin of error.” Those words signal that it is a tight race with no clear leader, even if one of them has a slightly larger percentage of support, like 48% to 47%.

As the director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, which has been taking the pulse of the public on policy issues and elections for the past 30 years, I’ve noted that people have been paying more attention to this technical term since at least 2016.

In that year, some polls in Florida, for example, indicated that Hillary Clinton was just a couple of percentage points ahead of Trump. Journalists and the public largely – and incorrectly – understood that apparent popular-vote lead to mean Clinton was likely to win.

But those 1 or 2 percentage points were within their polls’ margins of error. And Clinton lost Florida. In a poll about a political race, the margin of error tells readers the likely range of results of an election.

A poll is one or more questions asked of a small group of people and used to gauge the views of a larger group of people. The margin of error is a mathematical calculation of how accurate the poll results are – of how closely the answers given by the small group match the views held by the larger group.

If everyone in........

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