For all its prominence as a key battleground state, North Carolina hasn’t done much swinging in U.S. presidential elections.

The last time a majority of North Carolinians voted for a Democratic candidate was 2008 for Barack Obama. The time before that was 1976 for Jimmy Carter. In the past 12 presidential elections, Republicans have won 10. Those Republicans include Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.

But as I demonstrate in my 2024 book, “Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer,” simply looking at the outcome of presidential voting gives a skewed understanding of voting behavior in other elections across the state.

Consider 2020 again. While it is true that Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes – it now has 16, based on 2020 U.S Census Bureau data — his margin of victory was only about 74,000 votes out of some 5.4 million votes cast. It was the smallest margin of any state that Trump won.

Part of the reason is the nearly even split among voters in the two major parties and the emergence of registered voters who claim they are unaffiliated.

As of September 2024, North Carolina had 7.6 million registered voters. Of these, the largest group at 38% were registered as unaffiliated, followed by registered Democrats at 32% and registered Republicans at 30%.

Despite being considered a red........

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