Welcome to How Good Is This, Really?—renamed from the original How Bad Is This, Really?—a recurring feature in which we take the temperature of the presidential election and what seems likely to happen in November.

Kamala Harris, by the common consensus of both journalists and real humans, did well in last week’s debate. So what?

Well, so far … it was a little bit good for her? Just a little? But also—wait until you hear about Iowa and Alaska!

Before the debate, according the New York Times’ polling averages, Harris led Donald Trump nationally by 2 points. She led two swing states (Michigan and Wisconsin) by 2 points while the other five swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) were within 1-point margins. As of Tuesday, Harris leads Trump by 3 points in the Times national average, by 2 points in Nevada, and by 3 points in Wisconsin. The other five swing states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and now Michigan) are within 1-point margins.

In other words, while it’s possible that we’re only beginning to see a debate bump—the Morning Consult survey which came out Tuesday morning was good for Harris—there’s only been a little bit of movement so far. While most forecasting........

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