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Our Brexit dilemma has been obvious for 25 years

5 0
31.12.2023

The euro is 25 years old. Although the notes and coins did not come for another three years, the currencies of the 12 European countries that switched to euros were locked together on 1 January 1999. So for that interim period, accounts and electronic payments were in euros, while prices were listed in both the “old” and the “new” money to give people time to get used to what became the world’s largest-ever currency switch.

So how has it done – in political and economic terms – and have there been any implications for us, the United Kingdom, an EU member who did not adopt it?

Just to remind people, John Major negotiated the opt-out in the Maastricht Treaty in 1991. Then in the early 2000s, Tony Blair wanted the UK to switch to the euro, but thanks to resistance from Gordon Brown and the strong majority of people against the switch, Britain kept the pound.

Was this the right decision? More of the economics later, but it is important to separate membership of the EU and joining the euro. While there was general support to remain a member of the EU for most of the period since 1973 and the referendum to leave in 2016, there was never a majority in favour of dumping the pound for the euro. Back in 2003 a poll showed only 29 per cent in favour of UK entry, and 62 per cent against it – the remaining nine per cent were ‘don’t know’s.

This is in sharp contrast to the mood in the countries that did sign up. For them, the euro has worked. Despite fears of chaos, of price gouging, and of distrust of an untried currency, the transition was remarkably smooth. Even more important, a quarter-century later it is clear that it has been a considerable political success. The aim was to bind the European nations........

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