Retail investors are bracing for a wave of blockbuster IPOs — from SpaceX to OpenAI to Anthropic — with private‑market valuations stretching toward a trillion dollars. But Warren Buffett would tell them the same thing he’s said for decades: the moment of peak excitement is usually the worst time to buy.

In a 2019 CNBC interview, as the Uber IPO dominated headlines, Buffett summed up Berkshire Hathaway’s limited history with new listings: “In 54 years, I don’t think Berkshire has ever bought a new issue.” He explained why he avoids them: “The idea of saying the best place in the world I could put my money is something where all the selling incentives are there, commissions are higher, the animal spirits are rising… just doesn’t make any sense.”

Buffett’s point wasn’t that every IPO is a bad investment. His concern was that IPOs tend to arrive when enthusiasm is at its highest and valuation discipline at its lowest — a dynamic that feels especially relevant today.

The legendary investor has made only a few notable exceptions to his IPO philosophy. The first was in 1955, when he bought 100 shares ahead of the Ford IPO and made a quick $500 profit. The second was Berkshire’s uncharacteristic participation in Snowflake’s 2020 IPO — a position widely attributed to lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler and fully exited by 2024 with modest outcomes.

Even these rare........

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