Home mortgage rates could be on the way down.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing an increase of 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 2.5% before seasonal adjustment.

In plain talk, that means that the cost of goods is increasing, but only slightly—inflation is finally easing. Inflation has been falling steadily since peaking at 9.1% two years ago in response to the pandemic.

What does that mean for consumers? Likely a rate cut from the Fed, meaning interest rates could be coming down. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell signaled late last month that a rate cut would be coming at the September meeting slated to begin on September 17. Expectations are high for at least two rate cuts before the end of the year, but there’s some chatter that it could make it up to three—with more on the horizon in the new year.

Lower inflation means lower interest rates, typically leading to lower borrowing costs—your credit card and mortgage payments could be lower. We’re already seeing some movement—the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at its lowest since April 2023.

Still, the earlier boost in CPI, even though it’s slight, will be felt at tax time. Those higher numbers push out deduction limitations and will result in upward adjustments to tax brackets and increases to other key thresholds. Bloomberg Tax and Accounting predicts that inflation-adjusted amounts in the tax code will increase by 2.8% from the 2024 numbers. This is about half the increase taxpayers saw in 2024, a significant drop from the 7.1% increase in 2023. You can get a first look here.

Remember, these are not the tax rates and other numbers for 2024 (you'll find the official 2024 tax rates here).

What also had tongues wagging this week? The presidential debate. Taxes weren’t a huge talking point compared to other topics. According to CBS News, which measured how often candidates used certain words, Harris referenced tax ten times compared to Trump’s three. On the other hand, Trump talked about tariffs eight times, while Harris didn’t mention tariffs at all, instead referring to them as a "sales tax." Harris also referenced "small business" or businesses seven times, a phrase Trump didn't mention in either debate.

While taxes weren’t front and center at the debate, that doesn’t mean candidates aren’t talking about tax policy. Some pundits worry that taxes have become too much of a carrot for taxpayers, with candidates “hyper-targeting tax subsidies to narrowly favored activities or occupations” (Howard Gleckman’s turn of phrase might be more poetic, but a more simple term would be pandering). A comparison suggests that while Trump and Harris increasingly use this tool, Trump has been far more aggressive.

The tension between using the tax code to raise revenue versus rewarding specific activities or benefitting specially defined groups is hardly new. But, Gleckman writes, this year’s collection of proposed credits and deductions would be more tailored than a bespoke suit. And they’d make the tax code less fair and less efficient. One example? The highly critiqued “no tax on tips” proposal promoted by both Trump and Harris.

Now, there’s a new suggestion. At a rally in Arizona, former President Donald Trump unveiled a new policy proposal: eliminating income tax on overtime pay. The most glaring issue with eliminating taxes on overtime pay, suggests Andrew Leahey, is the inherent disadvantage it creates for regular wage earners. Those who log a standard 40-hour week would continue to pay taxes on their income, while their colleagues who can work overtime would enjoy tax-free earnings with their extra hours of pay.

It turns out that chasing tax dodgers isn’t just an American pursuit—French tax authorities are doubling down on high-profile tax fraud investigations these days. In March, a French court convicted a billionaire art dealer of tax fraud in a sprawling case that alleged Guy Wildenstein, head of the famed Wildenstein art family, avoided paying millions of euros in inheritance taxes through a network of trusts.

(If that name sounds familiar, Guy’s brother, Alec, was formerly married to New York City socialite Jocelyn Wildenstein, known as "Catwoman" in the 1990s media because of her extensive plastic surgery.)

In late 2023, French actress Isabelle Adjani was fined €250,000 and handed a suspended prison sentence after a court found that she falsely declared her residency in Portugal for two years. Adjani has maintained her innocence.

French lawmakers want more investigations, but domestic laws haven’t always supported this goal. A new law may change that.........

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