By David Robb ——Bio and Archives--April 3, 2024

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Before any significant investigation has been undertaken, the administration has stated that the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore was not an act of terror. They may be correct. It may be an act of war.

There are many reasons why the current administration may not wish to call it an act of war. They may not wish to alarm the populace. They may have no clear idea of who committed the act. They may know the source, but do not wish to name them.

Certainly we have a number of enemies abroad who would be happy to see disaster befall us, and perhaps would even be pleased to assist in such disaster. Iran, China, Russia, and even North Korea come to mind, although there are many others, most of whom lack the technical expertise to execute such a strike.

There are three basic possibilities to explain the event. First, that it was simply a tragic combination of accidental events. A second possibility is that it was a deliberate act by the crew of the boat. The third, and perhaps most likely, is that the control systems of the boat were hacked by an outside agent who then directed the boat into the bridge support.

Looking at each possibility in turn, we can dismiss the first as unlikely. The number of things that would have to happen in sequence makes the combination highly improbable. Further, the crew would have to be incompetent in responding to events at a time when most of the crew would have been at duty stations and able to respond quickly.

It is possible that the crew entered an incorrect waypoint into the automated navigation system that would cause the boat to make an early turn to starboard (right), directing it into the bridge support. The boat would normally have to make a right turn when passing under the bridge to stay in the channel, so such an error is possible. However, taken in the context of other events, especially with the two power failures aboard, it seems an unlikely error.

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