You know Allan Lichtman?

He's the venerable predictor in Washington who has predicted the election of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and received mounds of media attention in the process because of his past successes. Newsweek calls him “the Nostradamus” of politics. Well, I'm the guy who wrote the book on him.

Well, not the book. Lichtman writes his own books. But I wrote the only book about his system that he didn't write ‒ "Campaigns Don't Count: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong." It achieved sales in the high single digits.

Lichtman's fundamental argument – based upon systematic analysis of historical precedents back to the Civil War – is that election outcomes are not determined by campaigns.

Nor is an election all about “the economy, stupid.” Instead, the Lichtman “keys” isolate 13 factors that have each been found to be pretty good predictors even standing alone.

Opinion:Harris needs Republican votes to win Pennsylvania. Trump is making that easier.

They include major foreign policy successes and failures, scandal, the presence of a major third candidate and, yes, the economy. (They do not include........

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