Unofficial results indicate that Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a polarizing candidate who has been accused of human rights abuses and whose connections to a past dictator have worried some Indonesians, has won the presidential election in Indonesia.
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The result sparks concern among those who fear for the future of democracy in Indonesia, though it is too early to know the true repercussions of the election. The outcome, however, could prove to be the latest example of a broader trend this century. Autocracies – governments in which one person possesses unlimited power – are on the rise.
“The world is far into what’s widely called a democratic recession, which started back in the mid-2000s,” says Thomas Carothers, a senior fellow and democracy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an independent think tank that analyzes global issues.
The percentage of countries with closed autocracies has fluctuated somewhat in the 21st century, but more recently the share has either gone up or stayed the same each year from 2018-2022, according to March 2023 assessment by the independent research institute V-Dem, with analysis by Our World in Data. Meanwhile, the percentage of electoral democracies – political systems that hold meaningful, free and fair elections with multiple political parties – has gone down.
Taking a longer view, there are far fewer authoritarian regimes than there were decades ago. Starting in the 1960s and again in the 1980s, the global share of autocracies decreased dramatically as democracy started to gain more of a foothold around the world, according to V-Dem’s analysis. And despite the relative rise in autocracies in recent years, there were still 58 elected democracies globally compared to 30 closed autocracies in 2022.
That may seem like a wide gap, but a closer look provides context: Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population lived in autocracies that year. In 2022 there were also 58 electoral autocracies, which “hold multiparty elections but their quality or conditions around them are not sufficient to be classified as an electoral democracy,” according to V-Dem experts.
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The more recent trend can be described as featuring “derailing democracies,” says Barbara Wejnert, a professor at the University of Buffalo and author of “Diffusion of Democracy: The Past and Future of Global Democracy.” Her own research for that book – in which she measured indicators such as freedom of expression and freedom of press in 167 countries – suggests that the global level of democracy has gone down this century.
There are at least a few factors that could be driving the shift, says Carothers. First, he notes that many of the countries that transitioned to democracy in the 1980s and 1990s “have proven to be weaker than we thought.” Secondly, in some places around the world there has been a negative reaction to sociopolitical change, such as increasing LGBTQ+ rights and rising immigration. Coupled with that, Carothers says, are economic troubles sparking a “sense of discontent and openness to undemocratic figures who promised something different.” Finally, some autocracies have become more assertive and resilient, including China and Russia, he adds.
Carothers and Wejnert note examples of countries that have either transitioned from a democracy to an autocracy or at least shown growing authoritarian inclinations. One is Hungary under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been accused by the European Union of dismantling democratic institutions in the country. And there is President Recep Tayyip Edrogan in Turkey, where there was the promise of democratic reform that has instead “given way to authoritarian and dysfunctional politics,” according to the Brookings Institution. Wejnert and Carothers also note India, which is one of the world’s largest democracies but has experienced trends under Prime Minister Narendra Modi that human rights groups say undermine democratic principles, according to reporting by The Washington Post.
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Whether Indonesia backslides under the presumed president-elect Subianto is unclear. Subianto has been accused of human rights abuses, The New York Times reports. Though he has denied those allegations, according to Reuters. And independent analysts say there were no signs of systematic electoral fraud in Indonesia’s presidential contest. Carothers adds that Subianto’s election “certainly has people worried,” but it’s too early to know if it’ll be a blow to Indonesian democracy.
“It’s just the start of a new phase there,” he says. “So in a sense, we have to wait and see.”
Carothers also mentions the elephant in the room: former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has worried autocracy experts with his praise of leaders like Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as remarks about cracking down on political opponents and the media. Wejnert notes that Subianto used “Make Indonesia Great Again” – a slogan similar to Trump’s – in a previous campaign. But while Carothers says the U.S. is certainly influential in global politics and Trump’s badmouthing of the media and questioning of the 2020 election results set a bad example to the rest of the world, each country has “their own story with their own drivers,” including Indonesia.
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Both analysts argue, however, that autocracy is contagious. But that idea has its limits, Carothers notes.
“There’s an international contagion effect occurring among countries,” he says. “The U.S. is part of it, but we shouldn’t overestimate and assume that when the U.S. coughs, the rest of the world gets a cold politically.”
The Global Rise of Autocracies
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16.02.2024
Unofficial results indicate that Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a polarizing candidate who has been accused of human rights abuses and whose connections to a past dictator have worried some Indonesians, has won the presidential election in Indonesia.
READ:
The result sparks concern among those who fear for the future of democracy in Indonesia, though it is too early to know the true repercussions of the election. The outcome, however, could prove to be the latest example of a broader trend this century. Autocracies – governments in which one person possesses unlimited power – are on the rise.
“The world is far into what’s widely called a democratic recession, which started back in the mid-2000s,” says Thomas Carothers, a senior fellow and democracy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an independent think tank that analyzes global issues.
The percentage of countries with closed autocracies has fluctuated somewhat in the 21st century, but more recently the share has either gone up or stayed the same each year from 2018-2022, according to March 2023 assessment by the independent research institute V-Dem, with analysis by Our World in Data. Meanwhile, the percentage of electoral democracies – political systems that hold meaningful, free and fair elections with multiple political parties – has gone down.
Taking a longer view, there are far fewer........
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