In an era defined by rapid technological progress, artificial intelligence (AI) stands to redefine the geopolitical landscape. How nations harness or regulate AI could determine their influence and stability in the global arena. The question is not simply whether AI poses an existential threat to humanity, but how it will influence the geopolitical power balance. From unregulated AI development by private companies to stringent government control, policymakers face critical decisions to mitigate risks and maximize AI’s benefits.

Since 2023, following the public release of advanced AI technologies, concerns around job displacement, inequality, and existential risks have dominated public policy discussions. Yet, less attention has been paid to how AI could reshape global power dynamics. In this era of “geotechnopolitics,” AI may become a significant actor in world affairs, challenging our notions of state power and human agency. A nation’s influence may increasingly rely on its ability to develop, regulate, and integrate AI into its economy and defense infrastructure.

To understand potential futures, researchers have outlined several scenarios for AI development, each carrying different implications for international power structures.

One plausible outcome is that the United States continues its tradition of minimal regulation, allowing private corporations to dominate AI development. Silicon........

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