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Ross Douthat

By Ross Douthat

Opinion Columnist

The first year of the war in Ukraine seemed to vindicate Russia hawks. The belief that Vladimir Putin was a careful chess player whose ambitions could be constrained through negotiation, the belief that Ukraine couldn’t plausibly defend itself against Moscow and therefore didn’t merit support from an already overstretched America — these ideas seemed to dissolve in the first months of war, with Putin gambling and rambling while Ukrainian arms threw his forces back.

The second year of war has been kinder to realists and doves. Russia, as in many wars before, seems stronger in a grinding conflict than it did in the initial thrusts. Putin’s regime proved resilient against the West’s economic weapons, and against internal opposition as well; the death in prison of Russia’s leading dissident, Aleksei Navalny, looks like the latest example of the dictator’s ruthless settling of accounts. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian counteroffensive of spring and summer failed: A year ago there was still hope that a Russian retreat would turn into a rout, but since then stalemate has ruled the front.

The changed situation has created a division in the hawkish argument, visible as the U.S. Congress wrangles over further aid to Ukraine. On the one hand you still have rhetoric that seems to belong more to the first year of war, claiming that Putin is clearly losing the war (“This guy is on life support,” Senator Thom........

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