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Guest Essay

By Kristen Soltis Anderson

Ms. Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer, is a Republican pollster and a moderator of Opinion’s series of focus groups.

As Republicans head into the second day of their convention in Milwaukee, they are energized. They feel jubilant about their chances of winning in November and furious about the near-assassination of former President Donald Trump — an event many of them view as the natural consequence of what they see as hyperbolic rhetoric about the threat Mr. Trump poses to the country.

Meanwhile, many Democrats are despondent. Serious concerns about President Biden’s electoral hopes loomed even before the events of the weekend transpired. Mr. Biden’s advanced age and attendant campaign trail challenges remain. And now the iconic images of a bloodied Mr. Trump, fist in the air, seem to have raised Democrats’ concerns that they have no good options, only a slow march toward defeat.

I admit it feels a bit uncomfortable to dwell on the Biden-Trump horse race given the gravity of current events, but there’s still an election coming up, no matter what, with early voting set to begin in some states in September. And a flurry of polls released in the last few days — while not capturing the impact of the tragedy in Pennsylvania on voter opinion — offer valuable insight into the rigidity of the presidential contest.

In the initial aftermath of Mr. Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate, I was adamant that this was not simply “one bad night” and that there would be serious damage done to his standing with voters on questions of mental acuity and ability to serve. At the same time, with so many of Mr. Biden’s voters fiercely opposed to Mr.........

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