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Opinion

By Doug Sosnik
Graphics by Quoctrung Bui

Mr. Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised more than 50 governors and U.S. senators.

The best evidence that American politics is deeply, stubbornly and immovably stuck is that the presidential race is back where it started in the Electoral College race for 270 votes, despite the work, time and money by Democrats and Republicans to expand their chances in more states.

Donald Trump had hoped to exploit President Biden’s weaknesses and pick off Democratic-leaning Virginia and Minnesota. But against Kamala Harris, he is back to banking on a Sun Belt swing state strategy while hoping to win at least one industrial state. Ms. Harris had hoped that her summer momentum might put Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and possibly even North Carolina in better contention than they looked for Mr. Biden. But now, she is back to banking on a blue wall swing state strategy of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

What has remained a constant all along is this: Pennsylvania and Georgia are the two most pivotal states in the campaign. If Mr. Trump is able to carry Pennsylvania or Ms. Harris prevails in Georgia, either would have a decisive advantage in winning the election.

The reason for such a dead-even race is that the deep divisions in our country are all but impermeable to events surrounding the campaign, including the historic turmoil of 2024 (inflation, assassination attempts, a president dropping out, etc.). That is why Mr. Biden was virtually tied with Mr. Trump in many polls before their June debate even though the president had an abysmal job approval rating in the 30s and 70 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction.

That is why Mr. Trump’s standing in the polls has not changed despite becoming a convicted felon and constantly making statements that are flat-out lies.

And that is why Ms. Harris – who has raised over $1 billion dollars and has heavily outspent Mr. Trump, and won virtually every news cycle for two months and by all accounts dominated the debate – is running at best only even in national and swing state polling.

I have been working in politics since 1980, and in every single presidential election, at this point in the campaign, I had a clear sense of the winner. (OK, I got it wrong in 2016.) Heading into the final weekend of the race, it is not clear which candidate will win.

Given Mr. Trump’s resiliency and his advantages in the Sun Belt states, I believe he has a more plausible path to winning the Electoral College than Ms. Harris does. Still, I would not count Ms. Harris out, because of the potency of the issue of abortion, her superior ground game and the fact that a majority of Americans do not want four more years of Mr. Trump as president. Not to mention that in the closing days of the campaign, Mr. Trump has become increasingly erratic, which may magnify any concerns voters have about his return to the White House.

Let’s start with the basics. For the third presidential election cycle in a row, the winner will come down to the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and........

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