It is a mark of the bleakness of expectations among American Democrats that, this week, President Biden’s slight rise in the polls has been seized on as cause for giddiness. I did it myself. This was it! The beginning of the correction. Finally, the toll of various lawsuits and expensive judgments was coming home to roost in the form of a drag on Donald Trump’s popularity. New York magazine urged cautious optimism. NBC News lost its mind and used the word “behemoth” in a headline to toast Biden’s burgeoning campaign. All this based on national polling that puts Trump 0.7% ahead.

Still, it’s better than the numbers were a few months ago. In Pennsylvania, a key battleground that flipped for Trump in 2016, a recent survey put Biden up 10 points, having led by only one in February. In a national poll conducted by NPR, Biden was actually two points ahead. (The same poll found that 40% of respondents reported being “open to changing their minds”. Who are these people and what is wrong with them?) But while older voters, particularly men,........

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