Nikki Haley was born and raised in South Carolina. She’s never lost an election there, and that includes two governor’s races. So why is there an almost universal expectation — both within the state and outside — that she will lose her home state’s presidential primary?

It’s a complicated answer, but the simplest explanation is the state’s unique political complexion. Based on their voting patterns, South Carolina has four separate regions. Haley’s support is concentrated in just one of them.

Every recent public poll in the state shows former President Donald Trump leading Haley by wide margins. And both in South Carolina and elsewhere, polls consistently show that Haley and Trump draw support from two very different sets of voters. Trump wins huge margins with very conservative voters, evangelicals and those without a 4-year college degree. Haley does best among the college-educated, with non-evangelicals and moderates. Trump wins heavily among Republicans; Haley triumphs with those who identify as independents or Democrats.

Here are the places to follow on primary night to get a feel for whether or not Haley has a shot of winning her home state.

CHARLESTON-LOW COUNTRY AND COLUMBIA

The types of voters Haley attracts tend to be found in this region that includes the state capital and the state’s largest city. These areas have backed more conventional Republicans like Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio in past primaries, while also giving moderate John Kasich substantial support. Between the region’s traditional establishment GOP leanings and the large number of moderate white college-educated independents, Haley should be able to carry this area comfortably. Everywhere else is a much heavier lift.

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