Myanmar’s situation is complex: since February 2021, there is a multi-party civil war between the military coup government, the NUG (National Unity Government; successor of the Bamar-majority civil government) and its People’s defense forces, and over 30 different ethnic armed organisations (EAO’s) with shifting alliances/coalitions/loyalties, intersecting with a variety of criminal enterprises that are opportunistic and tactical.

But this situation is a continuation of a 75-year civil war, the longest in modern history, originating in British colonisation. The British created an artificial, chimeric, patchwork state of 135 ethnicities to “divide and rule”. A charismatic anti-imperialist leader, Aung San, united the parties, leading the country towards national liberation. He was assassinated (likely by British Elites) in 1947 just as the country was achieving liberation. After his assassination the country devolved into bloody chaos and civil war, which has continued to the current day. This war also has a religious dimension: some of the colonial ruling ethnic strata were converted to Christianity and Muslims were imported as labourers into Buddhist-Animistic cultures. This resulted in Buddhist-Christian-Islamic conflicts as well as intra-religious/intra-ethnic fights.

Chinese pressure

A new development has been China’s recent pressure on Myanmar: border military exercises, support of certain EAO’s, direct pressure on the military government, and even cross-border raids and arrest warrants.

This is very unusual: China has had a principled non-interventionist foreign policy since 1979. However, immense cross-border criminality has forced China’s hand: Myanmar has 2000 km of border with China, and thousands of Chinese nationals have been kidnapped into slavery in Myanmar; some have been murdered.

As a result, China is trying actively to suppress border crimes. A recent Chinese raid liberated 4500 Chinese nationals and Chinese officials have issued arrest warrants for several crime families. These syndicates kidnap Chinese and other nationals and force them to work in call-centre scams in Myanmar under threat of torture, sexual assault, and murder. 120,000 people are estimated to be enslaved, according to the UN. Some syndicates have family connections to the military government.

China had been trying to get the military government to shut down this slavery and scamming; when it became clear that was ineffectual, it supported/green-lighted an alliance of Northern EAO’s Three brotherhood Army (Arakan Army; Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’Ang National Liberation Army) to smash the criminal gangs and retake control of the border.

This has had the effect of demonstrating the weakness of the Military government, with some 150........

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