“Haredim, not Arabs or Iran, are the biggest threat to Israel’, Dan Perry, 2021

Introduction: demography is destiny

The Haredim community represents the deeply religious, ultra-orthodox Jews in Israel. They currently (2023) represent 13.5 percent of the total population of Israel. In about 40 years, their relative size will rise to 31.3 percent (see Figure 1). To this, one can add about 20 percent who would be Arab Israelis.

What is even more striking is that by 2065, 49 percent of Israelis under the age of 15 will be ultra-orthodox Jews. In other words, by the time Israel as a nation is more than 100 years old, its essentially secular and Zionist character will be fundamentally altered, given that the typical ultra-orthodox Jew has views and values that are at odds with other Jews. Thus, members of the Haredim community overwhelmingly support the application of religious laws (Halakha) as a way of governing Israel, believe in gender segregation, prohibits membership of women in political parties, practices strict dress codes for men and men, abhors the notion of women singing in public and would like cessation of commercial activities during the Jewish Sabbath (which fall on Saturdays). There is, according to one survey, hardly any interaction between Haredi Jews and others. More importantly, ultra-orthodox Jews have historically opposed Zionism as ‘religious heresy’.

Figure 1: Demographic projections of different groups in Israel, 2023-2065

Source: Statistical Report on Ultra-Orthodox Society in Israel 2023 – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

The socio-economic consequences of Israel’s demographic transformation

What are the socio-economic consequences of the demographic dynamics that are at work in Israel today? Professor Ben-David is leading the evidence-based and analytical work on this critical topic. As a macroeconomist, working on long-term socio-economic trends, Professor Ben-David worries a great deal about the ramifications that stem from the seemingly inexorable demographic transformation that is underway. This transformation is led by very high........

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