Jun 02, 2026 18:04 pm IST

Opinion | There Is A 'Shadow' Route Keeping Iran Alive, And America Can't Touch It

If the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's Trump card, then the Caspian Sea in its north is the 'war machine' helping Iran play its cards well.

Divyam Sharma Divyam Sharma Senior Sub Editor

Divyam Sharma Senior Sub Editor

On February 28, the US and Israel struck Iran, targeting its political and military power centres, eliminating the Grand Ayatollah on the first day of the war. Washington and Tel Aviv assumed that the decapitation of the Islamic regime by killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would lead to political paralysis and mass uprising, like what the world saw at the start of the year - which, in turn, would result in a regime change - one of the implicit goals of the joint US-Israel operation. However, the Islamic regime and its armed forces remain intact. As Mehdi Hasan told NDTV, "Iran is winning by not losing the war."

Daniel Byman, one of the leading experts on irregular warfare and terrorism, wrote that the current standoff is no longer a match of "military capabilities, but rather a struggle for political endurance and gaining bargaining leverage". Donald Trump claimed that Iran's military is nearly finished. However, just like all of Trump's claims, a Pentagon Intelligence input claims that Iran has managed to retain key military capabilities to fight.

This begs the question: how is that possible? If the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's Trump card, then the Caspian Sea in its north is the 'war machine' helping Iran play its cards well.

Caspian Sea - A Brief Introduction

The Caspian Sea is the world's largest inland body of water and is called the world's largest lake, sometimes referred to as a sea. Five countries have territorial control over the waters of the Caspian Sea: Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The sea is strategically located in Central Asia, connecting Europe and Asia, and it is rich in natural resources, with 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proven and probable reserves.

The discussions over the significance of the Caspian Sea are not new, and Israel and the US are aware of the arms trade between Russia and Iran via the sea. Israel struck Iran's Bandar Anzali port on the Caspian Sea to disrupt arms shipping between the two countries. Iran maintains four major ports on the Caspian: Bandar Anzali, Amirabad, Neka, and Nowshahr, while Russia operates the Astrakhan, Makhachkala, and Olya ports.

How Russia and Iran Ship Arms

Trade between Iran and Russia in the Caspian region is shrouded in secrecy and often referred to as the dark web of sea trade due to irregularities. The sea route came to prominence a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. A maritime trade analysis from Bloomberg found that Russia and Iran are investing $20 billion to expand rail, sea and river routes connecting the countries via the Caspian Sea. The logic was simple. Evade global sanctions and ship weapons to and from Iran via the Caspian Sea, which is connected to the Black Sea via the Sea of Azov........

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