What began as a diplomatic rupture has hardened into a regional power contest with direct consequences for US strategy from Gaza to the Eastern Mediterranean and to the Horn of Africa.

For years, the Israeli-Turkish split was dismissed in Washington politics as diplomatic theatre concealing an underlying strategic partnership. Such an assessment no longer applies. Beginning early 2026, a line had been crossed in Israeli-Turkish relations, transforming diplomatic alienation into a strategic rivalry with ominous implications that now extend into US regional calculus.

The sudden regional change is not an inter-state dispute but a struggle for the region’s pecking order. Israel is determined to retain its supreme position as the uncontested military hegemon of the Middle East and the powerhouse in the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, Turkey is reasserting its newfound confidence, based on its economy, large population, strategic nexus for energy transit, and military power, to challenge it.

Gaza: Ideology meets strategy

The Gaza Strip remains the most turbulent fault line capable of dragging the entire region into a substantial conflict. Israel considers Hamas an existential threat and must be destroyed. In stark contrast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has named Hamas a “liberation movement.” Hamas may become the spark that will ignite a major confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv, especially if Turkish forces become part of the International Stabilisation Force.

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