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Steven Shepard

Steven Shepard

Politico

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Trump just showed his endorsement power again. And his weaknesses.

20.03.2024 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

Where the ‘uncommitted’ protest vote could jolt Biden

12.03.2024 30

Politico

Steven Shepard

How to watch the Super Tuesday results like a pro

05.03.2024 20

Politico

Steven Shepard

The real reason Haley’s path to the nomination is all but impossible

Overperforming gets her nowhere.

25.02.2024 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

Nikki Haley needs to change the South Carolina GOP to win. Good luck.

The state's open primary would technically allow a candidate relying on moderate and liberal Trump opponents to compete, but it's rarely, if ever,...

24.02.2024 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

The campaign finance warning signs for Biden and Trump

Trump is spending significant amounts on legal services, while Biden is lagging behind both Trump and Obama as an incumbent.

22.02.2024 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

Move over GOP presidential primary. The real action is down-ballot.

Massively important primary races lurk just below the surface next month, including fights for House, Senate and governor.

17.02.2024 20

Politico

Steven Shepard

George Santos and the ‘scandal penalty’

A POLITICO analysis shows voters typically punish the party associated with a scandal in the proceeding special election, which could be bad news for...

13.02.2024 9

Politico

Steven Shepard

Snow forecast creates early-vote crunch in race to replace Santos

There's a chance of snow on Long Island for Election Day, so the final weekend of early voting could prove critical.

10.02.2024 3

Politico

Steven Shepard

What the Long Island special election tells us about the battle over the suburbs

The race between former Rep. Tom Suozzi and Mazi Melesa Pilip could provide clues for both parties on immigration and crime as they gear up for 2024.

10.02.2024 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

Biden and Trump didn't have to manipulate their primaries. But they did anyway.

In some cases, the rules changes engineered by one have also benefited the other.

03.02.2024 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

The delegate door is closing faster than Nikki Haley thinks

The delegate count is about to accelerate, and the kind of campaign Haley’s riding to South Carolina won’t get her to victory on Super Tuesday and...

27.01.2024 20

Politico

Steven Shepard

South Carolina probably won't save Nikki Haley

The long, ugly slog to next month's contest may not change the race.

24.01.2024 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

Why Katie Porter should root for a big Trump win in New Hampshire

The outcome in the GOP presidential race could shape California’s Super Tuesday Senate primary.

20.01.2024 7

Politico

Steven Shepard

Everyone’s waiting for Ann Selzer to release the most important Iowa caucus poll

The final 2020 release of the influential poll was scrapped at the last minute because of technical problems.

13.01.2024 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

Polls show Christie dropping out will likely help Haley in New Hampshire

Christie and Haley drew support from similar blocs of the electorate, and Christie supporters like Haley as their second choice.

11.01.2024 3

Politico

Steven Shepard

The Jan. 6 attack continues to haunt Trump’s reelection

Views of the attack have shifted among Republicans, but it remains toxic with the rest of the electorate.

06.01.2024 100

Politico

Steven Shepard

24 for ’24: The numbers that will shape a crucial year in politics

From Biden’s approval rating to the national murder rate, here are 24 numbers to watch this year.

30.12.2023 20

Politico

Steven Shepard

Your guide to the chaotic 2024 polling year ahead

Polling methodologies keep evolving. Here’s what you need to know to responsibly read the polls.

23.12.2023 9

Politico

Steven Shepard

Why a Trump conviction might not save Biden’s reelection

Pollsters have already started to explore what effect, if any, a criminal conviction before the election would have on Trump's support.

16.12.2023 70

Politico

Steven Shepard

Why Nikki Haley polls better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump does

A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who'd pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP...

09.12.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

The debates mattered. They just didn’t knock out Trump.

Nikki Haley’s rise and Vivek Ramaswamy’s fall are the direct results of their debate performances.

06.12.2023 2

Politico

Steven Shepard

Obamacare is even more popular than the last time Trump tried to kill it

The issue doesn't specifically motivate Republican voters, either.

02.12.2023 8

Politico

Steven Shepard

Biden’s poll numbers aren’t just bad — they’re getting worse

Trump’s vote share in national polls is higher than at any time in the past year.

25.11.2023 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

How a flood of congressional retirements is rocking the 2024 elections

Nine incumbents have already announced this month they aren’t running for reelection next year.

18.11.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

The power grabs that will determine control of Congress

Partisan gerrymandering isn’t new, but what’s happening right now is far from normal.

11.11.2023 9

Politico

Steven Shepard

The real threat Dean Phillips poses to Biden

The danger for President Joe Biden isn’t that Rep. Dean Phillips is a threat in the primary.

08.11.2023 80

Politico

Steven Shepard

6 warning signs for Biden in new battleground state poll

The toplines are bad for Biden. What’s buried deeper in the poll might be worse.

06.11.2023 40

Politico

Steven Shepard

10 races to watch on Tuesday’s Election Day

The last big set of elections before 2024 will have a lot of lessons. Here’s a cheat sheet.

04.11.2023 40

Politico

Steven Shepard

Kentucky Republicans are weaponizing Biden’s unpopularity as they fight to oust Beshear

Kentucky likes Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear — but dislikes Joe Biden. The GOP thinks they can use that to win.

03.11.2023 9

Politico

Steven Shepard

Democrats keep getting new warning signs about Black voter support

Black voters continue to be loyal to Democrats, but there are signs that support continues to erode.

21.10.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

It’s time for campaigns to open their books. Here’s what to watch for.

Campaigns are reporting their fundraising and expense numbers for the last time before the key Iowa and New Hampshire contests.

14.10.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

RFK Jr.'s independent bid is no joke

Recent polling shows he'd be the most formidable independent candidate since Ross Perot.

09.10.2023 2

Politico

Steven Shepard

If you want to understand 2024, watch next month’s Va. elections

The close race for control of the state legislature will tell us a lot about which party has the upper hand going into next year.

07.10.2023 10

Politico

Steven Shepard

Faith in the Supreme Court is down. Voters now say they want changes.

A new survey shows three-in-four voters want the justices bound to an ethics code.

30.09.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

Trump’s GOP rivals say he’s unelectable. Polls disagree.

Republicans’ debate-stage arguments that Trump will lose to Biden aren’t bearing out in the polls.

27.09.2023 3

Politico

Steven Shepard

Our new poll shows just how much GOP voters have diverged from everyone else on vaccines

A significant number of Republicans question the safety of vaccines and say Americans shouldn’t be encouraged to get them.

23.09.2023 5

Politico

Steven Shepard

Trump's become a runaway train in the GOP primary. Here's why.

A POLITICO analysis shows Trump's supporters are more conservative and more assured in their candidate than voters backing other Republican...

16.09.2023 6

Politico

Steven Shepard

What an unprecedented Biden ad blitz says about his reelection fight

A super PAC is spending $13 million far ahead of the normal advertising timeline.

09.09.2023 70

Politico

Steven Shepard

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