Regular readers of this column will know me to be very optimistic about the future of Australia.

There are, however, a few things I am pessimistic about. As things stand right now, we are heading towards an aged care catastrophe. It will take a massive overhaul of the way we deliver aged care, a bucketload of skilled migrants, strategically utilised technology, and a collectively much healthier elderly population to ensure our nation ages in dignity and good health.

We will explore the issue of aged care over two weeks. Today we will understand just how much the demand for aged care will increase and next week we take a very sobering look at the aged care workforce.

The older we get, the more medical and care services we require. As a rule of thumb, half of the population aged over 84 currently needs assistance with core activities. They need care.

This care can be delivered by family members or professionals. In either case, it’s labour intensive to grow old as a nation. I explained in a previous column that we are running out of workers, and that our prolonged skills shortage all but guarantees a continuation of our high migration approach.

I would argue that in the future we can’t rely as much on family members to provide aged care since the share of retirees without children is going up.

Also, more elderly people live geographically........

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