Today we explore the topic of migration. In fact, we will end migration altogether today. We explore an Australia ten years from now where we have stopped all migration.

The idea for this column was sparked after I shared my column on what Australia will most likely look like in 2034 on my LinkedIn profile. Someone asked what 2034 would look like if we stopped migration altogether. Today’s column answers that question.

We have to use a slightly different dataset than in my previous column. The official ABS population forecasts always include a zero-migration scenario. The baseline year for the dataset is 2022 – so that’s where we start.

First, we look at the Australian population by age in 2022. Our baseline sits at 26 million people. Now, we can overlay the high migration scenario (we are very close to that path) and the zero-migration scenario for 2034. Two vastly different futures for Australia emerge.

In one we need to house, educate, and care for 31.6 million people. In the other, we have 4.4 million fewer (27.2 million) mouths to feed and probably need two million fewer homes. Considering how hard the housing shortage is to solve while we lack workers to build all the additional housing stock, the zero-migration path might sound appealing.

The more we move to the right of the chart, the closer we move to old age, the smaller the gap between the two........

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