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Political opportunity and the non-religious

5 0
26.01.2025

As we are now a few short months away from the next federal election, politicians and their advisers are desperate to identify segments of the electorate that could decide a closely run race. Among other things, party strategists seek to appeal to the historical links between religion and voting preferences.

Paul Williams, Political scientist at Griffith University, stated in 2022 that Catholics historically voted Labor while Presbyterians were “90 to 95 per cent Liberal Party”. In his view, “There used to be a very strong link between voting and church, but that has really withered away.” If that is the case, what about the voting patterns of the non-religious?

Gallup polling in the US has long found a strong correlation between religious inclination and support of the Republican party. In 2023, the overall population was evenly split between Democrat and Republican, while the non-religious split 63% to 26% in favour of Democrats, with the balance unknown. Commentators pointed to the significance of religiosity, along with cost of living, as decisive factors in Trump’s success last November.

As we enter out own pre-election phase, what do we know about the association between religion and voting preference in Australia?

The non-religious vote in 2022

The Australian Election Study is a highly respected comprehensive survey conducted by Australian National University after every federal election. Responses to the survey are weighted to reflect national demographics, giving a nationally representative picture.........

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