Despite the deep divide between the political parties, one patch of common ground remains: Small businesses are likely to benefit, no matter who wins the November 5th election. Politicians have long pandered to the sector, a tradition Ronald Reagan highlighted in 1983 when he joked in a radio address that “every week should be Small Business Week, because America is small business.” It makes sense. Small businesses not only employ 46% of all private sector workers, but since 1995 have generated more than 60% of new private-sector jobs.

Moreover, with the American public increasingly distrustful of nearly all institutions, small business retains its sheen. It scores the highest of any sector in Gallup’s latest “Confidence in Institutions” survey, with 68% of Americans saying they trust small business “a great deal or quite a lot.” That stands in stark contrast to the mere 16% who say the same for big business and (at the bottom) the 9% who have similar trust in Congress.

Yet small business owners have election jitters.

For 51 years, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has tracked small businesses’ uncertainty by counting “don’t know” and “uncertain” responses to six key questions about the economy and their own expansion plans. In September, the gauge jumped 11 points from August, hitting its highest level in the survey’s history—higher even than in September of 2020, when the country was in the grip of the Covid pandemic and facing another fraught presidential election. Meanwhile, the NFIB’s Optimism Index remained low at 91.5, marking the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.

On one hand, former President Donald Trump is a familiar choice for small business owners, with his record already established from his first term. Back in February 2020, a CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll showed 64% of small business owners approved of Trump—before the pandemic and lockdowns ravaged and then reshaped the business landscape. Now, by contrast, the latest survey from September 2024 shows only 38% of small business owners approve of President Joe Biden.

On the other hand, Vice President Harris has been vocal about her plans to encourage small businesses, emphasizing a significant tax deduction aimed at making it easier to start a new venture.

“Both parties want to appeal to the small business community,” says Todd McCracken, the President of the National Small Business Association (NSBA), a non-partisan advocacy group. “But they take very different approaches.” Republicans, McCracken says, go straight for tax cuts and slashing regulations. Democrats—Vice President Harris especially—want to make it easier to get small businesses going. “Who small business owners support depends on where they are in their life cycle.”

Jim Croley and his wife Jessica have run the Wooden Keg Tavern in St. Clair,........

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