Biden’s Pernicious Presidential Legacies
Drawing by Nathaniel St. Clair
Trump’s proposals to radically transform much of US economic and social policy are being rapidly rolled out during the first week of his administration. How much he succeeds or fails in that transformation will depend on a number of factors. High on the list of such factors is the residue of conditions and policies leftover by the Biden administration—i.e. the legacies of the Biden years. Those legacies will play an important role influencing, and perhaps even determining, how Trump may fare in implementing his plans. So what are the legacy policies and conditions?
The most obvious economic legacy Biden leaves behind is the overhang of the worst inflation since 1980-81. Both a chronic high rate of inflation as well as a general price level that has risen at least 30%-40% over the four years of Biden’s term, when accurately estimated. Inflation has not been tamed and is now rising further—on a base level and rate already too high.
A second economic legacy—a consequence of the above—is that most US households’ real weekly earnings actually declined the past four years. Like the legacy of chronic inflation, that too promises to worsen in the very near future.
Biden’s third economic legacy is that despite a massive fiscal stimulus of $3.6 trillion during his first two years in office, in the second two years the US GDP economic growth rate has been a tepid average annual rise of 2%-2.5%. Thus a mountain of fiscal stimulus has produced a molehill of real economy recovery. More business-investor tax cuts by Trump will not change the tepid US economic growth of the Biden years—just as similar cuts in 2018 by Trump failed to do.
There was no molehill recovery, however, for financial asset wealth accumulation by wealthy investors and billionaires under Biden. In contrast to the anemic real economic growth legacy during his term, Biden’s $3.6 trillion fiscal stimulus of 2021-22 produced a record surge in 2023-24 in financial asset wealth accumulation and the creation of a record number of US billionaires. Income and wealth inequality in America accelerated. It will further under Trump, now on a base of an already record level.
A fifth economic legacy results from all the preceding four: during his four year term, no less than $7.65 trillion in cumulative US budget deficits also defines Biden’s economic legacy. As a consequence of the $7.65 trillion in budget deficits, the US national debt under Biden surged from $26.9........
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