The Iranian regime is now at the weakest point in its vicious history. It no longer survives through genuine legitimacy, ideological loyalty, or a credible vision for Iran’s future, but through terrorism and repression, propaganda, and networks of operatives and loyalists beyond its borders. A Shia regime that once claimed to embody a revolutionary Islamist model for the Muslim world has been reduced to defending its existence through coercion, intimidation, disinformation, and the intelligence institutions protecting the ruling clerical establishment. If Washington is ever to take regime change in Iran seriously, this is the moment. The opportunity should not be squandered through another cycle of hesitation, containment, and strategic ambiguity.

The United States, particularly the CIA, should therefore begin developing a sustained strategy aimed at regime change — not nation-building. Iran is already an ancient, cohesive nation with a powerful historical identity, sophisticated society, and deeply rooted tradition of statehood. Nor should Washington manufacture another artificial opposition abroad and convince itself that it represents Iranian society. What is required is political will. The determination to pursue the end of the Islamic Republic must be unmistakable in Washington and Langley; without it, American policy will remain an exercise in managing the same problem rather than resolving it.

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Any serious strategy must begin with an honest assessment of the Iranian opposition. Among the manufactured, discredited, and self-appointed groups that have emerged over the years, only one political figure has the potential to unite significant numbers of Iranians beneath a national banner: His Royal Highness Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Washington may ignore this reality because it challenges old assumptions about Iran, but that will not make it disappear. Iran’s future cannot be built around organizations based principally abroad, factions inflated by foreign funding and media exposure, or ideological movements with little meaningful constituency inside the country. A transition requires a national center of gravity, and Pahlavi remains uniquely positioned to provide one.

For the same reason, investing in separatist movements and armed ethnic organizations will lead nowhere. Iran is multiethnic, and every citizen — Kurd, Baluch, Azeri, Arab, or........

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