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NASA’s New Odds ‘City Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Crash Into the Moon

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We can all thank NASA for giving us one less thing to absolutely panic about. The near-Earth asteroid called 2024 YR4, the one that got tagged a “city killer” during its brief era as a trending space villain, is not going to hit the Moon in 2032. Phew. The new call comes after fresh tracking from the James Webb Space Telescope, which gave scientists a cleaner read on where this rock will be when it swings through again.

Webb observed asteroid 2024 YR4 on Feb. 18 and Feb. 26, using infrared instruments sensitive enough to catch a dim target against a packed star field. NASA said that the data let its orbit team refine the asteroid’s trajectory and eliminate the previously reported chance of a lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032. Earlier estimates had the Moon impact odds at 4.3 percent, which isn’t nothing.

Instead, NASA now expects 2024 YR4 to pass by the Moon at roughly 13,200 miles above the lunar surface. That’s pretty close in space terms, but in practice, it’s a miss. Earth also stays out of the line of fire. NASA has already said the asteroid poses no significant impact risk to Earth on that 2032 pass.

Why Does the Story of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Keep Changing?

If this story feels like it keeps changing, that’s because the early phase of tracking near-Earth objects can be convoluted. You start with a limited arc of observations, you run the math, and you get a spread of possible paths. As new measurements come in, the uncertainty shrinks, and the scary options drop off. NASA stressed that the update reflects improved precision about where the asteroid will be, not a sudden change in its orbit. The rock didn’t “swerve,” our aim improved.

YR4 was discovered in late 2024 by ATLAS, a NASA-funded survey that scans for objects that might wander into our neighborhood. Size estimates put it around 174 to 220 feet across. Which is definitely big enough to earn dramatic nicknames, but there’s lots of giant space stuff floating around, and we’re safe from this one. The payoff is boring, in a good way. Better detection means we have fewer surprises. 

NASA plans to keep watching 2024 YR4 during future observing windows. Space has plenty of rocks. And we need practice.

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