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Operation Sindoor 2 could unfold in 5 yrs. Pakistan is learning from Iran

Pakistan cannot match India economically and militarily. The Iran model is tailor-made for it. Islamabad will invest in select technologies to match or even better India.

In Operation Sindoor, the 88-hour high-intensity conflict, India inflicted a psychological defeat on Pakistan and reimposed its punitive deterrent. There is no scope for decisive wars among nuclear-weapon-armed states. Conflict must remain below the nuclear threshold, which is perceived in terms of existential threat, major territorial loss, or destruction of critical military and economic potential.

By the same token, it is emotional romanticism to split hairs by measuring victory by the extent of damage caused. The measure of victory is to create psychological paralysis through a faster OODA (Observation – Orientation – Decision – Action) Cycle up the escalatory ladder, as a result of which the adversary, despite its military potential, cannot respond. This was achieved in the early hours of 10 May, when the Indian Air Force (IAF) could strike at will across the entire length and breadth of Pakistan, and the adversary’s air force and air defence could not respond or retaliate.

The problem with psychological defeat is that even the defeated side can perceive and sell the idea of victory. And with military potential being largely intact, the defeated side feels it can reverse the tables in the next round. Hence, the probability of Operation Sindoor 2 remains high. Both sides have imbibed the lessons of Operation Sindoor, are studying the Iran War, and restudying the Ukraine War, in which asymmetric strategy has denied victory to the superior adversary. Consequently, both sides are busy upgrading their military potential—incrementally for the immediate and reformationally for the long term. 

I visualise two scenarios. At present, India’s deterrent remains imposed, as is evident from the fact that Pakistan’s terrorism-driven proxy war is at its lowest ebb ever. However, a black swan event in India or Pakistan driven by non-state actors can trigger a conflict. Pakistan-based terrorist organisations are a law unto themselves, and even a “no war no peace” scenario does not suit them. They can trigger India’s response as per its “new normal”.

Pakistan is battling insurgencies by the Balochistan Liberation Army and other organisations in Balochistan, and by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where violence spills over to the hinterland. Islamabad blames India for........

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