The latest rumors about alleged negotiations between the Iranian regime and the US administration have done more harm than good to Trump’s image and in the way he is presenting the current outcome of the war. Furthermore, it is worth pondering if all this “tweeting” by Trump is useful to the campaign or rather counterproductive.

As a matter of fact, Trump seems to be once again trapped in his wishful thinking, as already occurred months ago when he said “We now have peace in the Middle East”, regardless of the fact that Hamas is still present and active in Gaza, even if heavily debunked by the IDF military pressure, while in the north, Israel has to once again pound Lebanon and initiate ground operations to contrast what is left of Hezbollah.

Trump’s statements such as “There already has been a regime change, they are all dead”; “The regime badly wants a deal”; “Iran is looking for an exit ramp” and “We won the war against Iran” simply do not correspond to the reality of facts and the US President is learning it the hard way.

So far, there has been no regime change; some of the leaders are dead, but they have been replaced by others who are even more hardline. The IRGC, Al Quds and Basiji are still running the show. What’s left of the regime, which is supposed to surrender, is now even setting the conditions for an end to the war as it is fueled by a fanatic Khomeinist ideology based on the concept of martyrdom.

Missiles are still being launched against Israel and the Arab Gulf countries while the Iranian people are yet unable to take to the streets and overthrow the regime as the Basiji and IRGC presence is still relevant.

On March 25, the chief of the US Central Command, Adm. Bradley Cooper stated: “We have damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, naval production facilities and shipyards, and we’re not done yet.” Cooper also added that “Iran’s missile and drone attacks has dropped by 90% since the start of the war.”

This means that there is one third of the facilities that still needs to be destroyed and there should be no time limit to the campaign timeline until all objectives are fully achieved. In simple terms, the job is far from over.

There is no way to oust a regime that has been in place for 47 years with a four-weeks aerial campaign, even if massive. It takes more than that. It requires an economic stranglehold leading to the point where the regime cannot pay the soldiers’ salaries anymore, and it cannot give clear orders to manage the war, leading to mass defections in the military apparatus and causing IRGC isolation.

The regime is starting to come apart indeed, but in order to achieve the final objective, the operations should continue as long as necessary and, if a limited presence of US ground forces is necessary to secure the result, then it should be done. The coalition needs to move forward with the next phase, because no war has ever been won just with an aerial military campaign.

Would it be imaginable to see President Roosevelt, during World War II, suddenly negotiate with the Nazis? Or, leave the Nazi regime in power to avoid a ground offensive while stating “The war has been won?”

The Pentagon, the Israeli leadership, and the Iranian opposition have a clear idea of what the right path to follow is. On the other hand, Trump seems to fall once again into the trap of negotiating with those who should not and should never have been interlocutors from the very beginning.

Trump now has two options ahead: the first one is to use whatever force is needed to take control of the Hormuz Straight and the Iranian economic assets in the Gulf while moving forward with the aerial campaign and special operations on the ground until all the preset objectives are achieved, allowing the Iranian people to eventually rise up.

The second option, which seems to be tempting Trump, is to come up with a despicable deal with an agonizing regime which has an expertise in lying and deceiving. This will provide the Iranian regime with the energy it needs to recover, perpetrate further massacres against the population, and undo the enormous gains made by the US-Israeli coalition in these four weeks of military campaign.

The regime will claim to have resisted the US-Israeli offensive; its propaganda will boost Islamists worldwide, causing a major terrorist retaliation threat on a global scale. Iran will continue to blackmail the West and the Arab Gulf countries through Hormuz,, while in the meantime, it will quickly rebuild its arsenal and proxies.

Domestically, Trump will be politically devastated by the Democrats and by his own MAGA isolationists who will accuse him of having spent millions of dollars only to leave the regime in place and being unable to neutralize for good the Iranian threat (which wasn’t a threat according to them in the first place).

The eventual inconclusive military campaign, will also be a terrible message to Russia and China that would interpret the premature exit as a sign of weakness. After all, the recent news reported by the Ukrainian President Zelensky according to which security guarantees from Trump would  only if Ukraine surrenders the Donbass does not help at all.

Moreover, it would also be a very bad message for Trump’s allies such as Israel and the Arab Gulf countries that are backing the war against the Iranian regime, and the Iranian opposition worldwide which would feel once again betrayed. Trump could end up finding himself with many potential new enemies and with an Iranian regime looking for revenge. Those European countries that decided to remain neutral would also have a reason to back their choice saying that Trump was inconclusive anyway.

Trump faces only two possible outcomes in this war: he can either emerge as the clear winner, but only if he is willing to follow through completely, or he risks turning the situation into a major political failure if he settles for a deal. In the latter case, wishful thinking statements like those made recently will prove meaningless when confronted with reality. If Trump makes the wrong decisions, the responsibility will rest solely with him, not with journalists asking questions or the media simply reporting the facts.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)