Hitting to negotiate: the new US bet on Iran.

The new US strikes against Iran, since July 6, 2026, give the impression of a brutal return to military logic. After the Iranian attacks on navigation and US interests in the region, Washington responded with force. Donald Trump raised his voice. The United States struck. Commentators, however, rushed to say, “I had said it,” “I was right,” and “the war was inevitable.”

But in geopolitics, we must be wary of certainties that are too rapid.

The situation is more complex: the US may not have moved from a strategy of peace to one of total war. They may have moved on to something else: coercive diplomacy. To strike, not to destroy the Iranian regime, but to change its calculation. Strike to remind Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz cannot become a permanent instrument of blackmail. Strike to negotiate, but from a position of strength.

That is the ambiguity of current US policy.

Donald Trump probably wants to avoid a long war. This issue is an essential point. He does not want a new Iraq. He does not want a military stalemate in the Middle East. He wants to be able to say that he imposed a........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)