The Dream of a Deal in a Diplomatic Quagmire
Since the Islamic Republic came to power in Iran in 1979, the United States has had nine different presidents. Each one has faced the same basic problem: how to deal with a regime that uses talks, threats, terrorism, and delay to stay alive and expand its power. None of them has fully dealt with that problem.
During his first term, Donald Trump came closer than any of his predecessors. His maximum pressure campaign, the Abraham Accords, and the killing of Qassem Soleimani changed the usual American approach. Washington showed that it was willing to put real pressure on the Islamic Republic and confront its actions directly.
But starting a policy is not the same as finishing it. The question now is whether the United States is ready to complete what was started, or whether it will again settle for half-measures, temporary deals, and short-term calm.
There are three realistic options before the American president.
The first option is to return to negotiations. But after 47 years of dealing with the Islamic Republic, one point is clear: the regime does not use diplomacy in the normal sense. It uses diplomacy to buy time, reduce pressure, divide its enemies, and protect itself.
The regime’s recent ballistic missile attack toward Diego Garcia showed once again that private messages and quiet promises from the Revolutionary Guards cannot be trusted. Backchannel assurances may sound serious, but they have little value unless they are backed by strict verification and real consequences.
If talks begin again, they must be handled with extreme caution. America may have the upper hand today. It may not be trapped in a full war. But it must also avoid being trapped in endless negotiations. Long talks with no clear result are one of Tehran’s favorite methods. They give the regime time to regroup and wait for political changes in Washington.
If earlier American presidents had dealt with this problem sooner, the cost would have been lower. Today, delay is far more dangerous.
The second option is more direct. It would involve the quick removal of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear materials from the Isfahan facilities, along with the creation of a 100-kilometer security zone. This would give........
