As Israel adheres to the 10-day “ceasefire” with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Jerusalem faces another strategic opportunity to arm the Iranian people and overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In January, amidst ongoing protests in Iran and the brutal repression that followed by the Islamic Republic, I argued on the Middle East Forum Observer that Israel should have repurposed Iranian weapons seized by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) along the borders with Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon, and in the West Bank, to recruit and train young Iranians in guerrilla warfare to conduct targeted attacks against the regime’s internal security apparatus.

Since then, the situation in Iran has significantly changed. Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury have inflicted significant damage on the Islamic Republic’s leadership, including many responsible for ordering the crackdown on protestors. IDF intelligence estimates over 6,000 IRGC personnel have been killed and approximately 15,000 wounded. Anti-regime media reported that 4,770 IRGC, Basij, and police forces were killed, and 20,880 others were injured. Israeli drones have also destroyed Basij checkpoints and roadblocks in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes have also resulted in the deaths of 300 Basij commanders and severely damaged vehicle depots, command centers, and other facilities.

Despite these losses, the Islamic Republic can still suppress any future uprising by relying on its radicalized domestic supporters and Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani Shia militias. Against this backdrop, Israel’s recent weapons confiscation operations in southern Lebanon present another strategic option.

From late March to early April, IDF forces from the 36th Division, Givati Brigade, the 401st Armored Brigade, the Nahal Brigade’s 50th Battalion, and the 769th “Hiram” Regional Reserve Brigade, conducted raids throughout southern Lebanon, uncovering large stockpiles of weapons, including anti-tank missiles, drones, explosives, sniper rifles, and rocket-propelled grenades. The Israeli Navy’s Shayetet 13 unit seized additional weapons in the town of Khiam, including anti-tank missiles, mortars, grenades, rocket launchers, assault rifles, mines, explosive charges, and other weapons.

Instead of storing these weapons, Israel should repurpose and use them to recruit and train Iranians to engage in guerrilla warfare and targeted attacks against Basij foot soldiers, police officers, IRGC personnel, judiciary officials, government officials, and foreign Shia militia fighters. Locating such individuals and providing intelligence on their whereabouts would be easy, given the significant degradation of the regime’s military and security apparatus.

However, any effort to support armed opposition within Iran would require careful selection of individuals. Groups such as the Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK), the Sunni Baloch Islamist militant group Jaysh al Adl, and other separatist and radical extremist groups should not receive arms and training from Jerusalem. Instead, Israel should focus on arming and training Iranian university student groups, such as the Union of Lion and Sun Universities and monarchist and republican groups such as the Seven Aban Front, who are committed to a unified Iranian state, a secular government, normalizing relations with Israel, improving relations with its Gulf Arab allies, the US, and the broader Western world.

As Israel and Lebanon prepare to continue direct negotiations per the “ceasefire,” Israel should demand that the Lebanese government not only disarm the terrorist group but also hand over their weapons to Israel to arm the people of Iran. Additionally, Israel’s relationship with Azerbaijan could assist in providing a staging ground to funnel weapons across Baku’s border with Iran.

Backing such an initiative would fear among the regime’s supporters while encouraging other Iranians who might have been wary of engaging in armed revolution to join, creating a counterrevolutionary movement against the regime. By providing weapons, training, and operational support, Israel will have achieved its goal of laying the foundations for regime change in Iran through Tehran’s most prized proxy.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)